Fertility variation in China from spatial and life course perspective

Abstract

China is experiencing a fertility transition with a rapid fertility decline and continued regional fertility variation. The fertility variation at the aggregated level is the accumulation of individuals’ fertility behaviours; individuals living in different regions may have different childbearing behaviours.

There is a large literature on fertility trends and patterns in China. However, there are also significant gaps in the literature. First, although previous studies have investigated spatial variation in fertility in China, none have provided a satisfactory account of how population composition, context, and migration influence fertility variation at the regional level. Second, no previous analysis has examined the regional variation in the individuals’ childbearing behaviour, and how the context influences the individuals’ fertility behaviour.

This PhD thesis investigates the variation in fertility level and change, the timing and levels of individuals’ births, as well as the impact of population composition, context, and migration on fertility, from both spatial and life course perspectives in China. Advanced quantitative methods, including spatial regression models, event history analysis, and multilevel modelling, are used to analyse data from population censuses, statistical yearbooks, and China Family Panel Studies (CFPS).

The results show that there is spatial variation in fertility level and fertility change, and that both population composition and context in the same county and also its neighbouring counties influence the fertility in a given county. From the life course perspective, the study shows regional variation in women’s transition from first to second birth. Contextual factors such as family planning policy, traditional fertility culture, economic development, and urbanisation influence women’s transition to second birth in China. This thesis advances the understanding of the patterns of fertility transition and behaviours in China and emphasises the importance of context in fertility analyses in low-fertility societies.

Date of Award	4 Jul 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of St Andrews
Supervisor	Hill Kulu (Supervisor), Julia Mikolai (Supervisor) & Chia Liu (Supervisor)