Words after the storm: elite rhetoric and the limits of de-escalation in postreferendum Catalonia

When does a secessionist crisis end? What drives political elites to shift from hostility to moderation? This article examines the prospects of rhetorical de-escalation in the aftermath of a secessionist dispute through the paradigmatic case of Catalonia. We analyse elite rhetoric on X (formerly Twitter) between 2017 and 2023, focusing on how parties and civil society organisations portrayed their opponents. Using sentiment analysis, thematic coding and the Thomas–Kilmann conflict model, we show that antagonism remained the predominant mode of communication, particularly among nationalist civil society organisations. Yet some moderation emerged among parties, particularly the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and Comuns, who adopted more conciliatory tones during moments of coalition formation and budget negotiation. These episodes were tactical rather than ideological, reflecting the pressures of parliamentary arithmetic. De-escalation, we suggest, is driven more by political need than by political will.