Using local, detailed counts to infer the proximate causes of the UK common seal decline

Decreasing numbers of moulting common seals in Scotland have prompted concerns about the state of the population. Proximately, the observed declines could be due to changes in 1) fecundity, 2) mortality or 3) the timing of moult in relation to the window of aerial survey. It is essential that the relative contribution of these factors is evaluated on the basis of all available data. To this end, we begin the development and parameterization of a Bayesian demographic model for UK common seals.