TY - JOUR
T1 - Understanding and neutralizing the expense prediction bias
T2 - the role of accessibility, typicality, and skewness
AU - Howard, Ray Charles "Chuck"
AU - Hardisty, David J.
AU - Sussman, Abigail B.
AU - Lukas, Marcel
N1 - Funding: This work was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, True North Communications Inc. Faculty Research Funds at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and the Mays Business School Dean’s Office.
PY - 2022/4/1
Y1 - 2022/4/1
N2 - Consumers display an expense prediction bias in which they underpredict their future spending. The authors propose this bias occurs in large part because: 1) consumers base their predictions on typical expenses that come to mind easily during prediction, 2) taken together, typical expenses lead to a prediction near the mode of a consumer’s expense distribution rather than the mean, and 3) expenses display positive skew (with mode < mean). Accordingly, the authors also propose that prompting consumers to consider reasons why their expenses might be different than usual increases predictions – and therefore prediction accuracy – by bringing atypical expenses to mind. Ten studies (N = 6,044) provide support for this account of the bias and the “atypical intervention” developed to neutralize it.
AB - Consumers display an expense prediction bias in which they underpredict their future spending. The authors propose this bias occurs in large part because: 1) consumers base their predictions on typical expenses that come to mind easily during prediction, 2) taken together, typical expenses lead to a prediction near the mode of a consumer’s expense distribution rather than the mean, and 3) expenses display positive skew (with mode < mean). Accordingly, the authors also propose that prompting consumers to consider reasons why their expenses might be different than usual increases predictions – and therefore prediction accuracy – by bringing atypical expenses to mind. Ten studies (N = 6,044) provide support for this account of the bias and the “atypical intervention” developed to neutralize it.
KW - Expense prediction bias
KW - Consumer financial decision making
KW - Budgeting
KW - Accessibility
KW - Typicality
KW - Skewness
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85124841239
U2 - 10.1177/00222437211068025
DO - 10.1177/00222437211068025
M3 - Article
SN - 0022-2437
VL - 59
SP - 435
EP - 452
JO - Journal of Marketing Research
JF - Journal of Marketing Research
IS - 2
ER -