Transitions in and out of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic: a latent class analysis of older adults in England

Disease control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic may have intensified loneliness among older adults, though experiences varied based on individual vulnerabilities and resources. This study examines loneliness trajectories among older adults using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, spanning four waves: two pre-pandemic (Wave 8: 2016–2017; Wave 9: 2018–2019) and two COVID-19 substudies (June–July and November–December 2020). The sample included 4492 respondents (17,968 observations). Latent class growth analysis identified four loneliness trajectories: ‘not lonely’ (73.5%), ‘pandemic loneliness’ (12.7%), ‘transitioned out of loneliness’ (6.9%) and ‘enduring loneliness’ (6.8%). Multinomial regression analysis explored predictors of trajectory membership. Younger age (50–74), being female, depression, COVID-related worries and disrupted daily routines increased the likelihood of belonging to ‘pandemic loneliness’ rather than ‘not lonely’. Optimism and strong partner support increased the likelihood of remaining ‘not lonely’ or transitioning out of loneliness. The pandemic's unintended effects, including routine disruptions and financial concerns, heightened loneliness risks, whereas psychosocial resources provided critical resilience. To prepare for future public health crises, policies should strengthen mental health support, promote social and economic stability and enhance social connection and resilience. Addressing psychosocial factors is essential to reducing loneliness and protecting older adults' well-being during and beyond periods of crisis.