The UAP assessment matrix: a framework for evaluating evidence and understanding regarding Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena

Tim Lomas*, Andrew O'Malley, Michael P. Masters, Rony Vernet

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Over recent years the issue of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) has increasingly captivated attention and even concern, as reflected in the US military establishing a UAP Task Force in 2020. By their very definition however, such phenomena present an epistemological challenge to observers and analysts, raising questions such as what does it mean for something to be unidentified or anomalous, and relatedly, what kind of evidence and understanding would it take for the phenomenon to become identified and explained. This paper aims to help address these issues by providing a UAP Assessment Matrix that would allow observers to appraise a given UAP event/case, featuring two main dimensions: evidence (i.e., the quality of the data pertaining to it); and understanding (i.e., the extent to which the data align with various theories and explanations). Moreover, both dimensions feature numerous sub-dimensions (which is what makes the framework a matrix), allowing more nuanced and fine-grained assessments to be made. We also demonstrate the matrix using a little-known but significant UAP case study from 1953. The matrix will ideally provide a foundation for more rigorous and considered analyses of UAP events and stimulate further understanding of this vitally important topic.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)491-503
Number of pages13
JournalActa Astronautica
Volume234
Early online date21 Apr 2025
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 21 Apr 2025

Keywords

  • Anomalous
  • Assessment
  • Epistemology
  • UAP
  • Unidentified

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