The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

Jan Esper; Jason E. Smerdon; Kevin J. Anchukaitis; Kathryn Allen; Edward R. Cook; Rosanne D’Arrigo; Sébastien Guillet; Fredrik C. Ljungqvist; Frederick Reinig; Lea Schneider; Michael Sigl; Markus Stoffel; Mirek Trnka; Rob Wilson; Ulf Büntgen

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01371-1

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

Jan Esper, Jason E. Smerdon^*, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Kathryn Allen, Edward R. Cook, Rosanne D’Arrigo, Sébastien Guillet, Fredrik C. Ljungqvist, Frederick Reinig, Lea Schneider, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Mirek Trnka, Rob Wilson, Ulf Büntgen

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Earth & Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.

Original language	English
Journal	Communications Earth & Environment
Volume	5
Early online date	25 Apr 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01371-1
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 25 Apr 2024

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Esper_2024_CEE_IPCC-reductive_CC
This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2024. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Final published version, 2.89 MBLicence: CC BY

Rob Wilson NERC-NSF: NSFGEO-NERC: Understanding Trans-Hemispheric Modes of Climate Variability: A Novel Tree-Ring Data Transect spanning the Himalaya to the Southern Ocean
Wilson, R. (PI)
NERC
1/11/21 → 31/10/24
Project: Standard

Cite this

Esper, J., Smerdon, J. E., Anchukaitis, K. J., Allen, K., Cook, E. R., D’Arrigo, R., Guillet, S., Ljungqvist, F. C., Reinig, F., Schneider, L., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M., Trnka, M., Wilson, R., & Büntgen, U. (2024). The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history. Communications Earth & Environment, 5. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01371-1

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title = "The IPCC{\textquoteright}s reductive Common Era temperature history",

abstract = "Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.",

author = "Jan Esper and Smerdon, {Jason E.} and Anchukaitis, {Kevin J.} and Kathryn Allen and Cook, {Edward R.} and Rosanne D{\textquoteright}Arrigo and S{\'e}bastien Guillet and Ljungqvist, {Fredrik C.} and Frederick Reinig and Lea Schneider and Michael Sigl and Markus Stoffel and Mirek Trnka and Rob Wilson and Ulf B{\"u}ntgen",

note = "J.E. acknowledges support by the Gutenberg Research College, J.E. M.T. and U.B. by the project AdAgrif (CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635) and ERC (AdG 882727), J.E.S. by the US NSF (OISE-1743738, AGS-2101214 and AGS-2303352), K.J.A. by the US NSF (AGS-1803946 and AGS-2102993), K.A. by the ARC (FT200100102), R.D. by the US NSF (OPP-2112314, OPP-2124885, and AGS-2102759), S.G and M. Stoffel by the SNSF (Sinergia CRSII5_183571), F.C.L. by the SRC (grant no. 2018-01272), Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (grant no. MMW 2022-0114) and Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (Pro Futura Scientia XIII Fellow), LS by the German Research Foundation (SCHN 1645/1-1), M. Sigl by the ERC (CoG 820047), and R.W. by the NSF-NERC (NE/W007223/1). ",

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AU - Esper, Jan

AU - Smerdon, Jason E.

AU - Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

AU - Allen, Kathryn

AU - Cook, Edward R.

AU - D’Arrigo, Rosanne

AU - Guillet, Sébastien

AU - Ljungqvist, Fredrik C.

AU - Reinig, Frederick

AU - Schneider, Lea

AU - Sigl, Michael

AU - Stoffel, Markus

AU - Trnka, Mirek

AU - Wilson, Rob

AU - Büntgen, Ulf

N1 - J.E. acknowledges support by the Gutenberg Research College, J.E. M.T. and U.B. by the project AdAgrif (CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635) and ERC (AdG 882727), J.E.S. by the US NSF (OISE-1743738, AGS-2101214 and AGS-2303352), K.J.A. by the US NSF (AGS-1803946 and AGS-2102993), K.A. by the ARC (FT200100102), R.D. by the US NSF (OPP-2112314, OPP-2124885, and AGS-2102759), S.G and M. Stoffel by the SNSF (Sinergia CRSII5_183571), F.C.L. by the SRC (grant no. 2018-01272), Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (grant no. MMW 2022-0114) and Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (Pro Futura Scientia XIII Fellow), LS by the German Research Foundation (SCHN 1645/1-1), M. Sigl by the ERC (CoG 820047), and R.W. by the NSF-NERC (NE/W007223/1).

PY - 2024/4/25

Y1 - 2024/4/25

N2 - Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.

AB - Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.

U2 - 10.1038/s43247-024-01371-1

DO - 10.1038/s43247-024-01371-1

M3 - Article

SN - 2662-4435

VL - 5

JO - Communications Earth & Environment

JF - Communications Earth & Environment

ER -

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

Abstract

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Rob Wilson NERC-NSF: NSFGEO-NERC: Understanding Trans-Hemispheric Modes of Climate Variability: A Novel Tree-Ring Data Transect spanning the Himalaya to the Southern Ocean

Cite this