The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Ulf Büntgen; Kathy Allen; Kevin J. Anchukaitis; Dominique Arseneault; Étienne Boucher; Achim Bräuning; Snigdhansu Chatterjee; Paolo Cherubini; Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova); Christophe Corona; Fabio Gennaretti; Jussi Grießinger; Sebastian Guillet; Joel Guiot; Björn Gunnarson; Samuli Helama; Philipp Hochreuther; Malcolm K. Hughes; Peter Huybers; Alexander V. Kirdyanov; Paul J. Krusic; Josef Ludescher; Wolfgang J.-H. Meier; Vladimir S. Myglan; Kurt Nicolussi; Clive Oppenheimer; Frederick Reinig; Matthew W. Salzer; Kristina Seftigen; Alexander R. Stine; Markus Stoffel; Scott St. George; Ernesto Tejedor; Aleyda Trevino; Valerie Trouet; Jianglin Wang; Rob Wilson; Bao Yang; Guobao Xu; Jan Esper

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Ulf Büntgen^*, Kathy Allen, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Dominique Arseneault, Étienne Boucher, Achim Bräuning, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Paolo Cherubini, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Christophe Corona, Fabio Gennaretti, Jussi Grießinger, Sebastian Guillet, Joel Guiot, Björn Gunnarson, Samuli Helama, Philipp Hochreuther, Malcolm K. Hughes, Peter Huybers, Alexander V. KirdyanovPaul J. Krusic, Josef Ludescher, Wolfgang J.-H. Meier, Vladimir S. Myglan, Kurt Nicolussi, Clive Oppenheimer, Frederick Reinig, Matthew W. Salzer, Kristina Seftigen, Alexander R. Stine, Markus Stoffel, Scott St. George, Ernesto Tejedor, Aleyda Trevino, Valerie Trouet, Jianglin Wang, Rob Wilson, Bao Yang, Guobao Xu, Jan Esper

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p <0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Original language	English
Article number	3411
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
Publication status	Published - 7 Jun 2021

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Final published version, 1.83 MBLicence: CC BY

Northern Hemisphere 2,000 Year Tree-Ring Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions (dataset)
Wilson, R. (Creator), United States Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service, 2021
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/33215
Dataset

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Büntgen, U., Allen, K., Anchukaitis, K. J., Arseneault, D., Boucher, É., Bräuning, A., Chatterjee, S., Cherubini, P., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Corona, C., Gennaretti, F., Grießinger, J., Guillet, S., Guiot, J., Gunnarson, B., Helama, S., Hochreuther, P., Hughes, M. K., Huybers, P., ... Esper, J. (2021). The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions. Nature Communications, 12, Article 3411. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6

@article{95309855747447a7999c2a8e42e6d308,

title = "The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions",

abstract = "Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p <0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.",

author = "Ulf B{\"u}ntgen and Kathy Allen and Anchukaitis, {Kevin J.} and Dominique Arseneault and {\'E}tienne Boucher and Achim Br{\"a}uning and Snigdhansu Chatterjee and Paolo Cherubini and {Churakova (Sidorova)}, {Olga V.} and Christophe Corona and Fabio Gennaretti and Jussi Grie{\ss}inger and Sebastian Guillet and Joel Guiot and Bj{\"o}rn Gunnarson and Samuli Helama and Philipp Hochreuther and Hughes, {Malcolm K.} and Peter Huybers and Kirdyanov, {Alexander V.} and Krusic, {Paul J.} and Josef Ludescher and Meier, {Wolfgang J.-H.} and Myglan, {Vladimir S.} and Kurt Nicolussi and Clive Oppenheimer and Frederick Reinig and Salzer, {Matthew W.} and Kristina Seftigen and Stine, {Alexander R.} and Markus Stoffel and {St. George}, Scott and Ernesto Tejedor and Aleyda Trevino and Valerie Trouet and Jianglin Wang and Rob Wilson and Bao Yang and Guobao Xu and Jan Esper",

note = "U.B. and J.E. received funding from SustES: Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), and the ERC project MONOSTAR (AdG 882727). C.C., S.G. and M.S. received funding from the SNF Sinergia project CALDERA (project no. 183571). S.C. acknowledges support from US National Science Foundation grants 1737918, 1939916 and 1939956.",

year = "2021",

month = jun,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6",

language = "English",

volume = "12",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

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}

Büntgen, U, Allen, K, Anchukaitis, KJ, Arseneault, D, Boucher, É, Bräuning, A, Chatterjee, S, Cherubini, P, Churakova (Sidorova), OV, Corona, C, Gennaretti, F, Grießinger, J, Guillet, S, Guiot, J, Gunnarson, B, Helama, S, Hochreuther, P, Hughes, MK, Huybers, P, Kirdyanov, AV, Krusic, PJ, Ludescher, J, Meier, WJ-H, Myglan, VS, Nicolussi, K, Oppenheimer, C, Reinig, F, Salzer, MW, Seftigen, K, Stine, AR, Stoffel, M, St. George, S, Tejedor, E, Trevino, A, Trouet, V, Wang, J, Wilson, R, Yang, B, Xu, G & Esper, J 2021, 'The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions', Nature Communications, vol. 12, 3411. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6

TY - JOUR

T1 - The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

AU - Büntgen, Ulf

AU - Allen, Kathy

AU - Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

AU - Arseneault, Dominique

AU - Boucher, Étienne

AU - Bräuning, Achim

AU - Chatterjee, Snigdhansu

AU - Cherubini, Paolo

AU - Churakova (Sidorova), Olga V.

AU - Corona, Christophe

AU - Gennaretti, Fabio

AU - Grießinger, Jussi

AU - Guillet, Sebastian

AU - Guiot, Joel

AU - Gunnarson, Björn

AU - Helama, Samuli

AU - Hochreuther, Philipp

AU - Hughes, Malcolm K.

AU - Huybers, Peter

AU - Kirdyanov, Alexander V.

AU - Krusic, Paul J.

AU - Ludescher, Josef

AU - Meier, Wolfgang J.-H.

AU - Myglan, Vladimir S.

AU - Nicolussi, Kurt

AU - Oppenheimer, Clive

AU - Reinig, Frederick

AU - Salzer, Matthew W.

AU - Seftigen, Kristina

AU - Stine, Alexander R.

AU - Stoffel, Markus

AU - St. George, Scott

AU - Tejedor, Ernesto

AU - Trevino, Aleyda

AU - Trouet, Valerie

AU - Wang, Jianglin

AU - Wilson, Rob

AU - Yang, Bao

AU - Xu, Guobao

AU - Esper, Jan

N1 - U.B. and J.E. received funding from SustES: Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), and the ERC project MONOSTAR (AdG 882727). C.C., S.G. and M.S. received funding from the SNF Sinergia project CALDERA (project no. 183571). S.C. acknowledges support from US National Science Foundation grants 1737918, 1939916 and 1939956.

PY - 2021/6/7

Y1 - 2021/6/7

N2 - Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p <0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

AB - Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p <0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6

DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6

M3 - Article

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

M1 - 3411

ER -

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Abstract

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Datasets

Northern Hemisphere 2,000 Year Tree-Ring Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions (dataset)

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