The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: evidence from the Mexican Revolution

David Escamilla-Guerrero; Edward Kosack; Zachary Ward

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515

The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: evidence from the Mexican Revolution

David Escamilla-Guerrero^*, Edward Kosack, Zachary Ward

^*Corresponding author for this work

Economics (Business School)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.

Original language	English
Article number	103515
Journal	Journal of Development Economics
Volume	176
Early online date	22 May 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 22 May 2025

Keywords

Migration
Refugees
Mexican Revolution

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515Licence: CC BY

Escamilla-Guerrero_2025_JDE_Impact-violence_CC
Copyright © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Final published version, 2.61 MBLicence: CC BY

Replication files for "The Impact of Violence on the Dynamics of Migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution"
Escamilla-Guerrero, D. (Creator), OPENICPSR, 2025
https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/232961/version/V1/view
Dataset

Cite this

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title = "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: evidence from the Mexican Revolution",

abstract = "Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history{\textquoteright}s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.",

keywords = "Migration, Refugees, Mexican Revolution",

author = "David Escamilla-Guerrero and Edward Kosack and Zachary Ward",

note = "Funding: This research was developed with the financial support of the 2020 Carnevali Research Grant, Economic History Society.",

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AU - Escamilla-Guerrero, David

AU - Kosack, Edward

AU - Ward, Zachary

N1 - Funding: This research was developed with the financial support of the 2020 Carnevali Research Grant, Economic History Society.

PY - 2025/5/22

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N2 - Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.

AB - Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.

KW - Migration

KW - Refugees

KW - Mexican Revolution

U2 - 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515

DO - 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515

M3 - Article

SN - 0304-3878

VL - 176

JO - Journal of Development Economics

JF - Journal of Development Economics

M1 - 103515

ER -

The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: evidence from the Mexican Revolution

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Replication files for "The Impact of Violence on the Dynamics of Migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution"

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