The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Alaaeldin Soultan; Diego Pavón-jordán; Ute Bradter; Brett Sandercock; Wesley Hochachka; Alison Johnston; Jon Brommer; Elie Gaget; Verena Keller; Peter Knaus; Karen Aghababyan; Qenan Maxhuni; Alexandre Vintchevski; Károly Nagy; Liutauras Raudonikis; Dawn Balmer; David Noble; Domingos Leitão; Ingar Jostein Øien; Paul Shimmings; Elchin Sultanov; Brian Caffrey; Kerem Boyla; Dimitrije Radišić; Åke Lindström; Metodija Velevski; Clara Pladevall; Lluís Brotons; Šťastný Karel; Draženko Z. Rajković; Tomasz Chodkiewicz; Tomasz Wilk; Szép Tibor; Chris Van Turnhout; Ruud Foppen; Ian Burfield; Thomas Vikstrøm; Vlatka Dumbović Mazal; Mark Eaton; Petr Vorisek; Aleksi Lehikoinen; Sergi Herrando; Tatiana Kuzmenko; Hans-Günther Bauer; Mikhail Kalyakin; Olga Voltzit; Jovica Sjeničić; Tomas Pärt

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Alaaeldin Soultan^*, Diego Pavón-jordán, Ute Bradter, Brett Sandercock, Wesley Hochachka, Alison Johnston, Jon Brommer, Elie Gaget, Verena Keller, Peter Knaus, Karen Aghababyan, Qenan Maxhuni, Alexandre Vintchevski, Károly Nagy, Liutauras Raudonikis, Dawn Balmer, David Noble, Domingos Leitão, Ingar Jostein Øien, Paul ShimmingsElchin Sultanov, Brian Caffrey, Kerem Boyla, Dimitrije Radišić, Åke Lindström, Metodija Velevski, Clara Pladevall, Lluís Brotons, Šťastný Karel, Draženko Z. Rajković, Tomasz Chodkiewicz, Tomasz Wilk, Szép Tibor, Chris Van Turnhout, Ruud Foppen, Ian Burfield, Thomas Vikstrøm, Vlatka Dumbović Mazal, Mark Eaton, Petr Vorisek, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Sergi Herrando, Tatiana Kuzmenko, Hans-Günther Bauer, Mikhail Kalyakin, Olga Voltzit, Jovica Sjeničić, Tomas Pärt

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr⁻¹ towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr⁻¹. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

Original language	English
Article number	024025
Number of pages	12
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	17
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
Publication status	Published - 10 Feb 2022

Keywords

Species distribution models
European Breeding Bird Atlas
Breeding distributions
Climate change
Land-use change

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Soultan, A., Pavón-jordán, D., Bradter, U., Sandercock, B., Hochachka, W., Johnston, A., Brommer, J., Gaget, E., Keller, V., Knaus, P., Aghababyan, K., Maxhuni, Q., Vintchevski, A., Nagy, K., Raudonikis, L., Balmer, D., Noble, D., Leitão, D., Øien, I. J., ... Pärt, T. (2022). The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution. Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), Article 024025. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe

@article{950703fcc7c8422495f9b0a089c5310f,

title = "The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution",

abstract = "Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.",

keywords = "Species distribution models, European Breeding Bird Atlas, Breeding distributions, Climate change, Land-use change",

author = "Alaaeldin Soultan and Diego Pav{\'o}n-jord{\'a}n and Ute Bradter and Brett Sandercock and Wesley Hochachka and Alison Johnston and Jon Brommer and Elie Gaget and Verena Keller and Peter Knaus and Karen Aghababyan and Qenan Maxhuni and Alexandre Vintchevski and K{\'a}roly Nagy and Liutauras Raudonikis and Dawn Balmer and David Noble and Domingos Leit{\~a}o and {\O}ien, {Ingar Jostein} and Paul Shimmings and Elchin Sultanov and Brian Caffrey and Kerem Boyla and Dimitrije Radi{\v s}i{\'c} and {\AA}ke Lindstr{\"o}m and Metodija Velevski and Clara Pladevall and Llu{\'i}s Brotons and {\v S}{\v t}astn{\'y} Karel and Rajkovi{\'c}, {Dra{\v z}enko Z.} and Tomasz Chodkiewicz and Tomasz Wilk and Sz{\'e}p Tibor and {Van Turnhout}, Chris and Ruud Foppen and Ian Burfield and Thomas Vikstr{\o}m and Mazal, {Vlatka Dumbovi{\'c}} and Mark Eaton and Petr Vorisek and Aleksi Lehikoinen and Sergi Herrando and Tatiana Kuzmenko and Hans-G{\"u}nther Bauer and Mikhail Kalyakin and Olga Voltzit and Jovica Sjeni{\v c}i{\'c} and Tomas P{\"a}rt",

note = "Funding: We also acknowledge the Scientific Project of the State Order of the Government of Russian Federation to Lomonosov Moscow State University No. 121032300105-0 for participating in EBBA2 data. Our research was funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA—Net COFUND program, with the following funding organizations: the Academy of Finland (Univ. Turku: 326327, Univ. Helsinki: 326338), the Swedish Research Council (Swedish Univ. Agric. Sci: 2018–02440, Lund Univ.: 2018–02441), the Research Council of Norway (Norwegian Instit. for Nature Res., 295767), and the National Science Foundation (Cornell Univ., ICER-1927646), and we also acknowledge the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.",

year = "2022",

month = feb,

day = "10",

doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe",

language = "English",

volume = "17",

journal = "Environmental Research Letters",

issn = "1748-9326",

publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd.",

number = "2",

}

Soultan, A, Pavón-jordán, D, Bradter, U, Sandercock, B, Hochachka, W, Johnston, A, Brommer, J, Gaget, E, Keller, V, Knaus, P, Aghababyan, K, Maxhuni, Q, Vintchevski, A, Nagy, K, Raudonikis, L, Balmer, D, Noble, D, Leitão, D, Øien, IJ, Shimmings, P, Sultanov, E, Caffrey, B, Boyla, K, Radišić, D, Lindström, Å, Velevski, M, Pladevall, C, Brotons, L, Karel, Š, Rajković, DZ, Chodkiewicz, T, Wilk, T, Tibor, S, Van Turnhout, C, Foppen, R, Burfield, I, Vikstrøm, T, Mazal, VD, Eaton, M, Vorisek, P, Lehikoinen, A, Herrando, S, Kuzmenko, T, Bauer, H-G, Kalyakin, M, Voltzit, O, Sjeničić, J & Pärt, T 2022, 'The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 17, no. 2, 024025. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe

TY - JOUR

T1 - The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

AU - Soultan, Alaaeldin

AU - Pavón-jordán, Diego

AU - Bradter, Ute

AU - Sandercock, Brett

AU - Hochachka, Wesley

AU - Johnston, Alison

AU - Brommer, Jon

AU - Gaget, Elie

AU - Keller, Verena

AU - Knaus, Peter

AU - Aghababyan, Karen

AU - Maxhuni, Qenan

AU - Vintchevski, Alexandre

AU - Nagy, Károly

AU - Raudonikis, Liutauras

AU - Balmer, Dawn

AU - Noble, David

AU - Leitão, Domingos

AU - Øien, Ingar Jostein

AU - Shimmings, Paul

AU - Sultanov, Elchin

AU - Caffrey, Brian

AU - Boyla, Kerem

AU - Radišić, Dimitrije

AU - Lindström, Åke

AU - Velevski, Metodija

AU - Pladevall, Clara

AU - Brotons, Lluís

AU - Karel, Šťastný

AU - Rajković, Draženko Z.

AU - Chodkiewicz, Tomasz

AU - Wilk, Tomasz

AU - Tibor, Szép

AU - Van Turnhout, Chris

AU - Foppen, Ruud

AU - Burfield, Ian

AU - Vikstrøm, Thomas

AU - Mazal, Vlatka Dumbović

AU - Eaton, Mark

AU - Vorisek, Petr

AU - Lehikoinen, Aleksi

AU - Herrando, Sergi

AU - Kuzmenko, Tatiana

AU - Bauer, Hans-Günther

AU - Kalyakin, Mikhail

AU - Voltzit, Olga

AU - Sjeničić, Jovica

AU - Pärt, Tomas

N1 - Funding: We also acknowledge the Scientific Project of the State Order of the Government of Russian Federation to Lomonosov Moscow State University No. 121032300105-0 for participating in EBBA2 data. Our research was funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA—Net COFUND program, with the following funding organizations: the Academy of Finland (Univ. Turku: 326327, Univ. Helsinki: 326338), the Swedish Research Council (Swedish Univ. Agric. Sci: 2018–02440, Lund Univ.: 2018–02441), the Research Council of Norway (Norwegian Instit. for Nature Res., 295767), and the National Science Foundation (Cornell Univ., ICER-1927646), and we also acknowledge the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.

PY - 2022/2/10

Y1 - 2022/2/10

N2 - Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

AB - Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

KW - Species distribution models

KW - European Breeding Bird Atlas

KW - Breeding distributions

KW - Climate change

KW - Land-use change

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe

M3 - Article

SN - 1748-9326

VL - 17

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

IS - 2

M1 - 024025

ER -

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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