The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ18O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions

Maureen E. Raymo; Reinhard Kozdon; David Evans; Lorraine Lisiecki; Heather L. Ford

doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022

The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ¹⁸O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions

Maureen E. Raymo, Reinhard Kozdon, David Evans, Lorraine Lisiecki, Heather L. Ford

School of Earth & Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

Understanding the sensitivity of the polar ice caps to a modest global warming (2–3 °C above preindustrial) is of paramount importance if we are to accurately predict future sea level change, knowledge that will inform both social and economic policy in the coming years. However, decades of study of the Pliocene (2.6–5.3 Ma), an epoch in recent Earth history characterized by atmospheric CO₂ levels similar to today, have so far failed to provide definitive sea level and ice volume estimates for that time. Here we review the sources of uncertainty in the paired Mg/Ca-δ¹⁸O methodology used to estimate past sea level, ice volume, and ocean temperature, as well as discuss common assumptions that may bias our interpretation of ocean geochemical records including the LR04 benthic-δ¹⁸O stack, a global compilation of 57 oxygen isotope records that forms the standard template of climate change history for the last 5.3 million years.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	291-302
Journal	Earth Science Reviews
Volume	177
Early online date	2 Dec 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022
Publication status	Published - Feb 2018

Keywords

Sea level
Ice volume
Paleoceanography
Paleoclimate
Geochemistry

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022

Evans_2017_ESR_IceVolume_AAM
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. This work has been made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. This is the author created, accepted version manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022
Accepted author manuscript, 1.58 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{258c99c26ec642d1a4d740185815d991,

title = "The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ18O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions",

abstract = "Understanding the sensitivity of the polar ice caps to a modest global warming (2–3 °C above preindustrial) is of paramount importance if we are to accurately predict future sea level change, knowledge that will inform both social and economic policy in the coming years. However, decades of study of the Pliocene (2.6–5.3 Ma), an epoch in recent Earth history characterized by atmospheric CO2 levels similar to today, have so far failed to provide definitive sea level and ice volume estimates for that time. Here we review the sources of uncertainty in the paired Mg/Ca-δ18O methodology used to estimate past sea level, ice volume, and ocean temperature, as well as discuss common assumptions that may bias our interpretation of ocean geochemical records including the LR04 benthic-δ18O stack, a global compilation of 57 oxygen isotope records that forms the standard template of climate change history for the last 5.3 million years.",

keywords = "Sea level, Ice volume, Paleoceanography, Paleoclimate, Geochemistry",

author = "Raymo, {Maureen E.} and Reinhard Kozdon and David Evans and Lorraine Lisiecki and Ford, {Heather L.}",

note = "M.E.R. would like to acknowledge funding support from the World Surf League, the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation as well as NSF awards OCE-1202632 “PLIOMAX” and OCE-1436014.",

year = "2018",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022",

language = "English",

volume = "177",

pages = "291--302",

journal = "Earth Science Reviews",

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publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ18O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions

AU - Raymo, Maureen E.

AU - Kozdon, Reinhard

AU - Evans, David

AU - Lisiecki, Lorraine

AU - Ford, Heather L.

N1 - M.E.R. would like to acknowledge funding support from the World Surf League, the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation as well as NSF awards OCE-1202632 “PLIOMAX” and OCE-1436014.

PY - 2018/2

Y1 - 2018/2

N2 - Understanding the sensitivity of the polar ice caps to a modest global warming (2–3 °C above preindustrial) is of paramount importance if we are to accurately predict future sea level change, knowledge that will inform both social and economic policy in the coming years. However, decades of study of the Pliocene (2.6–5.3 Ma), an epoch in recent Earth history characterized by atmospheric CO2 levels similar to today, have so far failed to provide definitive sea level and ice volume estimates for that time. Here we review the sources of uncertainty in the paired Mg/Ca-δ18O methodology used to estimate past sea level, ice volume, and ocean temperature, as well as discuss common assumptions that may bias our interpretation of ocean geochemical records including the LR04 benthic-δ18O stack, a global compilation of 57 oxygen isotope records that forms the standard template of climate change history for the last 5.3 million years.

AB - Understanding the sensitivity of the polar ice caps to a modest global warming (2–3 °C above preindustrial) is of paramount importance if we are to accurately predict future sea level change, knowledge that will inform both social and economic policy in the coming years. However, decades of study of the Pliocene (2.6–5.3 Ma), an epoch in recent Earth history characterized by atmospheric CO2 levels similar to today, have so far failed to provide definitive sea level and ice volume estimates for that time. Here we review the sources of uncertainty in the paired Mg/Ca-δ18O methodology used to estimate past sea level, ice volume, and ocean temperature, as well as discuss common assumptions that may bias our interpretation of ocean geochemical records including the LR04 benthic-δ18O stack, a global compilation of 57 oxygen isotope records that forms the standard template of climate change history for the last 5.3 million years.

KW - Sea level

KW - Ice volume

KW - Paleoceanography

KW - Paleoclimate

KW - Geochemistry

U2 - 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022

DO - 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022

M3 - Review article

SN - 0012-8252

VL - 177

SP - 291

EP - 302

JO - Earth Science Reviews

JF - Earth Science Reviews

ER -