Abstract
Background: Identifying people with diabetes who are likely to experience a foot ulcer is an important part of preventative care. Many cohort studies report predictive models for foot ulcerations and for people with diabetes, but reports of long-term outcomes are scarce.
Aim: We aimed to develop a predictive model for foot ulceration in diabetes using a range of potential risk factors with a follow-up of 10 years after recruitment. A new foot ulceration was the outcome of interest and death was the secondary outcome of interest.
Design: A 10-year follow-up cohort study.
Methods: 1193 people with a diagnosis of diabetes who took part in a study in 2006–2007 were invited to participate in a 10-year follow-up. We developed a prognostic model for the incidence of incident foot ulcerations using a survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards model. We also utilised survival analysis Kaplan–Meier curves, and relevant tests, to assess the association between the predictor variables for foot ulceration and death.
Results: At 10-year follow-up, 41% of the original study population had died and more than 18% had developed a foot ulcer. The predictive factors for foot ulceration were an inability to feel a 10 g monofilament or vibration from a tuning fork, previous foot ulceration and duration of diabetes.
Conclusions: The prognostic model shows an increased risk of ulceration for those with previous history of foot ulcerations, insensitivity to a 10 g monofilament, a tuning fork and duration of diabetes. The incidence of foot ulceration at 10-year follow-up was 18%; however, the risk of death for this community-based population was far greater than the risk of foot ulceration.
Aim: We aimed to develop a predictive model for foot ulceration in diabetes using a range of potential risk factors with a follow-up of 10 years after recruitment. A new foot ulceration was the outcome of interest and death was the secondary outcome of interest.
Design: A 10-year follow-up cohort study.
Methods: 1193 people with a diagnosis of diabetes who took part in a study in 2006–2007 were invited to participate in a 10-year follow-up. We developed a prognostic model for the incidence of incident foot ulcerations using a survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards model. We also utilised survival analysis Kaplan–Meier curves, and relevant tests, to assess the association between the predictor variables for foot ulceration and death.
Results: At 10-year follow-up, 41% of the original study population had died and more than 18% had developed a foot ulcer. The predictive factors for foot ulceration were an inability to feel a 10 g monofilament or vibration from a tuning fork, previous foot ulceration and duration of diabetes.
Conclusions: The prognostic model shows an increased risk of ulceration for those with previous history of foot ulcerations, insensitivity to a 10 g monofilament, a tuning fork and duration of diabetes. The incidence of foot ulceration at 10-year follow-up was 18%; however, the risk of death for this community-based population was far greater than the risk of foot ulceration.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e459 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism |
| Volume | Early View |
| Early online date | 21 Nov 2023 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 21 Nov 2023 |
Keywords
- Cohort study
- Diabetes mellitus
- Foot ulcer
- Prediction
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Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.