Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: patterns and determinants

Nicholas Campisi; Hill Kulu; Julia Mikolai; Sebastian  Klüsener; Mikko Myrskylä

doi:10.1002/psp.2308

Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: patterns and determinants

Nicholas Campisi, Hill Kulu, Julia Mikolai, Sebastian Klüsener, Mikko Myrskylä

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Abstract

This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation.

Original language	English
Article number	e2308
Journal	Population, Space and Place
Volume	Early View
Early online date	15 Jan 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2308
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 15 Jan 2020

Keywords

Total fertility rate
NUTS 3
Europe
Spatial regression
Spatial lag model
Spatial variation

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10.1002/psp.2308

Campisi_2020_PSP_Spatialvariation_AAM
Copyright © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2308
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title = "Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: patterns and determinants",

abstract = "This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation.",

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AU - Campisi, Nicholas

AU - Kulu, Hill

AU - Mikolai, Julia

AU - Klüsener, Sebastian

AU - Myrskylä, Mikko

PY - 2020/1/15

Y1 - 2020/1/15

N2 - This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation.

AB - This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation.

KW - Total fertility rate

KW - NUTS 3

KW - Europe

KW - Spatial regression

KW - Spatial lag model

KW - Spatial variation

U2 - 10.1002/psp.2308

DO - 10.1002/psp.2308

M3 - Article

SN - 1544-8444

VL - Early View

JO - Population, Space and Place

JF - Population, Space and Place

M1 - e2308

ER -

Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: patterns and determinants

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Keywords

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