Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study

Ting Shi; Tristan Millington; Chris Robertson; Karen Jeffrey; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Colin McCowan; Colin R Simpson; Lana Woolford; Luke Daines; Steven Kerr; Ben Swallow; Adeniyi Fagbamigbe; Catalina A  Vallejos; David Weatherill; Sandra Jayacodi; Kimberly Marsh; Jim McMenamin; Igor Rudan; Lewis Duthie Ritchie; Tanja Mueller; Amanj Kurdi; Aziz Sheikh; Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators

doi:10.1177/01410768231223584

Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study

Ting Shi, Tristan Millington, Chris Robertson, Karen Jeffrey, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi , Colin McCowan, Colin R Simpson, Lana Woolford, Luke Daines, Steven Kerr, Ben Swallow, Adeniyi Fagbamigbe, Catalina A Vallejos, David Weatherill, Sandra Jayacodi, Kimberly Marsh, Jim McMenamin, Igor Rudan, Lewis Duthie Ritchie, Tanja MuellerAmanj Kurdi, Aziz Sheikh^*, Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Objectives We undertook a national analysis to characterise and identify risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) resulting in hospitalisation during the winter period in Scotland.

Design A population-based retrospective cohort analysis.

Setting Scotland.

Participants 5.4 million residents in Scotland.

Main outcome measures Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between risk factors and ARI hospitalisation.

Results Between September 1, 2022 and January 31, 2023, there were 22,284 (10.9% of 203,549 with any emergency hospitalisation) ARI hospitalisations (1,759 in children and 20,525 in adults) in Scotland. Compared to the reference group of children aged 6-17 years, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was higher in children aged 3-5 years (aHR=4.55 95%CI (4.11-5.04)). Compared to 25-29 years old, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was highest amongst the oldest adults aged ≥80 years (7.86 (7.06-8.76)). Adults from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived, 1.64 (1.57-1.72)), with existing health conditions (≥5 vs 0 health conditions, 4.84 (4.53-5.18)) or with history of all-cause emergency admissions (≥6 vs 0 previous emergency admissions 7.53 (5.48-10.35)) were at higher risk of ARI hospitalisations. The risk increased by the number of existing health conditions and previous emergency admission. Similar associations were seen in children.

Conclusions Younger children, older adults, those from more deprived backgrounds and individuals with greater numbers of pre-existing conditions and previous emergency admission were at increased risk for winter hospitalisations for ARI.

Original language	English
Number of pages	15
Journal	Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine
Volume	Online First
Early online date	12 Feb 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768231223584
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 12 Feb 2024

Keywords

Epidemiology
Health informatics
Respiratory medicine

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Shi-2023-Risk-of-winter-hospitalisation-JRSM-AAM_SI_CCBY
Copyright © 2024 the Authors. This work has been made available online in accordance with the Rights Retention Strategy This accepted manuscript is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768231223584
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Cite this

Shi, T., Millington, T., Robertson, C., Jeffrey, K., Katikireddi , S. V., McCowan, C., Simpson, C. R., Woolford, L., Daines, L., Kerr, S., Swallow, B., Fagbamigbe, A., Vallejos, C. A., Weatherill, D., Jayacodi, S., Marsh, K., McMenamin, J., Rudan, I., Ritchie, L. D., ... Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators (2024). Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Online First. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768231223584

@article{5ea1bb2176cd4a17a16d391fd85f1ed9,

title = "Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study",

abstract = "Objectives We undertook a national analysis to characterise and identify risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) resulting in hospitalisation during the winter period in Scotland. Design A population-based retrospective cohort analysis. Setting Scotland. Participants 5.4 million residents in Scotland. Main outcome measures Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between risk factors and ARI hospitalisation. Results Between September 1, 2022 and January 31, 2023, there were 22,284 (10.9% of 203,549 with any emergency hospitalisation) ARI hospitalisations (1,759 in children and 20,525 in adults) in Scotland. Compared to the reference group of children aged 6-17 years, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was higher in children aged 3-5 years (aHR=4.55 95%CI (4.11-5.04)). Compared to 25-29 years old, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was highest amongst the oldest adults aged ≥80 years (7.86 (7.06-8.76)). Adults from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived, 1.64 (1.57-1.72)), with existing health conditions (≥5 vs 0 health conditions, 4.84 (4.53-5.18)) or with history of all-cause emergency admissions (≥6 vs 0 previous emergency admissions 7.53 (5.48-10.35)) were at higher risk of ARI hospitalisations. The risk increased by the number of existing health conditions and previous emergency admission. Similar associations were seen in children. Conclusions Younger children, older adults, those from more deprived backgrounds and individuals with greater numbers of pre-existing conditions and previous emergency admission were at increased risk for winter hospitalisations for ARI.",

keywords = "Epidemiology, Health informatics, Respiratory medicine",

author = "Ting Shi and Tristan Millington and Chris Robertson and Karen Jeffrey and Katikireddi, {Srinivasa Vittal} and Colin McCowan and Simpson, {Colin R} and Lana Woolford and Luke Daines and Steven Kerr and Ben Swallow and Adeniyi Fagbamigbe and Vallejos, {Catalina A} and David Weatherill and Sandra Jayacodi and Kimberly Marsh and Jim McMenamin and Igor Rudan and Ritchie, {Lewis Duthie} and Tanja Mueller and Amanj Kurdi and Aziz Sheikh and {Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators}",

note = "Funding : This study is funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. This work also benefits from the infrastructure and partnerships assembled by HDR UK, including through the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, funded by UK Research and Innovation [grant ref MC_PC_20058]. ",

year = "2024",

month = feb,

day = "12",

doi = "10.1177/01410768231223584",

language = "English",

volume = "Online First",

journal = "Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine",

issn = "0141-0768",

publisher = "Sage",

}

Shi, T, Millington, T, Robertson, C, Jeffrey, K, Katikireddi , SV, McCowan, C, Simpson, CR, Woolford, L, Daines, L, Kerr, S, Swallow, B, Fagbamigbe, A, Vallejos, CA, Weatherill, D, Jayacodi, S, Marsh, K, McMenamin, J, Rudan, I, Ritchie, LD, Mueller, T, Kurdi, A, Sheikh, A & Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators 2024, 'Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study', Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, vol. Online First. https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768231223584

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland

T2 - national retrospective cohort study

AU - Shi, Ting

AU - Millington, Tristan

AU - Robertson, Chris

AU - Jeffrey, Karen

AU - Katikireddi , Srinivasa Vittal

AU - McCowan, Colin

AU - Simpson, Colin R

AU - Woolford, Lana

AU - Daines, Luke

AU - Kerr, Steven

AU - Swallow, Ben

AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi

AU - Vallejos, Catalina A

AU - Weatherill, David

AU - Jayacodi, Sandra

AU - Marsh, Kimberly

AU - McMenamin, Jim

AU - Rudan, Igor

AU - Ritchie, Lewis Duthie

AU - Mueller, Tanja

AU - Kurdi, Amanj

AU - Sheikh, Aziz

AU - Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators

N1 - Funding : This study is funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. This work also benefits from the infrastructure and partnerships assembled by HDR UK, including through the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, funded by UK Research and Innovation [grant ref MC_PC_20058].

PY - 2024/2/12

Y1 - 2024/2/12

N2 - Objectives We undertook a national analysis to characterise and identify risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) resulting in hospitalisation during the winter period in Scotland. Design A population-based retrospective cohort analysis. Setting Scotland. Participants 5.4 million residents in Scotland. Main outcome measures Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between risk factors and ARI hospitalisation. Results Between September 1, 2022 and January 31, 2023, there were 22,284 (10.9% of 203,549 with any emergency hospitalisation) ARI hospitalisations (1,759 in children and 20,525 in adults) in Scotland. Compared to the reference group of children aged 6-17 years, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was higher in children aged 3-5 years (aHR=4.55 95%CI (4.11-5.04)). Compared to 25-29 years old, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was highest amongst the oldest adults aged ≥80 years (7.86 (7.06-8.76)). Adults from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived, 1.64 (1.57-1.72)), with existing health conditions (≥5 vs 0 health conditions, 4.84 (4.53-5.18)) or with history of all-cause emergency admissions (≥6 vs 0 previous emergency admissions 7.53 (5.48-10.35)) were at higher risk of ARI hospitalisations. The risk increased by the number of existing health conditions and previous emergency admission. Similar associations were seen in children. Conclusions Younger children, older adults, those from more deprived backgrounds and individuals with greater numbers of pre-existing conditions and previous emergency admission were at increased risk for winter hospitalisations for ARI.

AB - Objectives We undertook a national analysis to characterise and identify risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) resulting in hospitalisation during the winter period in Scotland. Design A population-based retrospective cohort analysis. Setting Scotland. Participants 5.4 million residents in Scotland. Main outcome measures Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between risk factors and ARI hospitalisation. Results Between September 1, 2022 and January 31, 2023, there were 22,284 (10.9% of 203,549 with any emergency hospitalisation) ARI hospitalisations (1,759 in children and 20,525 in adults) in Scotland. Compared to the reference group of children aged 6-17 years, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was higher in children aged 3-5 years (aHR=4.55 95%CI (4.11-5.04)). Compared to 25-29 years old, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was highest amongst the oldest adults aged ≥80 years (7.86 (7.06-8.76)). Adults from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived, 1.64 (1.57-1.72)), with existing health conditions (≥5 vs 0 health conditions, 4.84 (4.53-5.18)) or with history of all-cause emergency admissions (≥6 vs 0 previous emergency admissions 7.53 (5.48-10.35)) were at higher risk of ARI hospitalisations. The risk increased by the number of existing health conditions and previous emergency admission. Similar associations were seen in children. Conclusions Younger children, older adults, those from more deprived backgrounds and individuals with greater numbers of pre-existing conditions and previous emergency admission were at increased risk for winter hospitalisations for ARI.

KW - Epidemiology

KW - Health informatics

KW - Respiratory medicine

U2 - 10.1177/01410768231223584

DO - 10.1177/01410768231223584

M3 - Article

SN - 0141-0768

VL - Online First

JO - Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine

JF - Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine

ER -

Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Keywords

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