Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

Kerstin Treydte; Laibao Liu; Ryan S. Padrón; Elisabet Martínez-Sancho; Flurin Babst; David C. Frank; Arthur Gessler; Ansgar Kahmen; Benjamin Poulter; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Annemiek I. Stegehuis; Rob Wilson; Laia Andreu-Hayles; Roderick Bale; Zdzislaw Bednarz; Tatjana Boettger; Frank Berninger; Ulf Büntgen; Valerie Daux; Isabel Dorado-Liñán; Jan Esper; Michael Friedrich; Mary Gagen; Michael Grabner; Håkan Grudd; Björn E. Gunnarsson; Emilia Gutiérrez; Polona Hafner; Marika Haupt; Emmi Hilasvuori; Ingo Heinrich; Gerhard Helle; Risto Jalkanen; Högne Jungner; Maarit Kalela-Brundin; Andreas Kessler; Andreas Kirchhefer; Stephan Klesse; Marek Krapiec; Tom Levanič; Markus Leuenberger; Hans W. Linderholm; Danny McCarroll; Valérie Masson-Delmotte; Slawomira Pawelczyk; Anna Pazdur; Octavi Planells; Rutile Pukiene; Katja T. Rinne-Garmston; Iain Robertson; Antonio Saracino; Matthias Saurer; Gerhard H. Schleser; Kristina Seftigen; Rolf T.W. Siegwolf; Eloni Sonninen; Michel Stievenard; Elzbieta Szychowska-Krapiec; Malgorzata Szymaszek; Luigi Todaro; John S. Waterhouse; Martin Weigl-Kuska; Rosemarie B. Weigt; Rupert Wimmer; Ewan J. Woodley; Adomas Vitas; Giles Young; Neil J. Loader

doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8

Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

Kerstin Treydte^*, Laibao Liu, Ryan S. Padrón, Elisabet Martínez-Sancho, Flurin Babst, David C. Frank, Arthur Gessler, Ansgar Kahmen, Benjamin Poulter, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Rob Wilson, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Roderick Bale, Zdzislaw Bednarz, Tatjana Boettger, Frank Berninger, Ulf Büntgen, Valerie Daux, Isabel Dorado-LiñánJan Esper, Michael Friedrich, Mary Gagen, Michael Grabner, Håkan Grudd, Björn E. Gunnarsson, Emilia Gutiérrez, Polona Hafner, Marika Haupt, Emmi Hilasvuori, Ingo Heinrich, Gerhard Helle, Risto Jalkanen, Högne Jungner, Maarit Kalela-Brundin, Andreas Kessler, Andreas Kirchhefer, Stephan Klesse, Marek Krapiec, Tom Levanič, Markus Leuenberger, Hans W. Linderholm, Danny McCarroll, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Slawomira Pawelczyk, Anna Pazdur, Octavi Planells, Rutile Pukiene, Katja T. Rinne-Garmston, Iain Robertson, Antonio Saracino, Matthias Saurer, Gerhard H. Schleser, Kristina Seftigen, Rolf T.W. Siegwolf, Eloni Sonninen, Michel Stievenard, Elzbieta Szychowska-Krapiec, Malgorzata Szymaszek, Luigi Todaro, John S. Waterhouse, Martin Weigl-Kuska, Rosemarie B. Weigt, Rupert Wimmer, Ewan J. Woodley, Adomas Vitas, Giles Young, Neil J. Loader

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe’s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	58–65
Number of pages	18
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	17
Early online date	27 Dec 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8
Publication status	Published - Jan 2024

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10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - European Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Network from 1600-2013 CE
Treydte, K. (Creator), Liu, L. (Creator), Padrón, R. S. (Creator), Martínez-Sancho, E. (Creator), Babst, F. (Creator), Frank, D. C. (Creator), Gessler, A. (Creator), Kahmen, A. (Creator), Poulter, B. (Creator), Seneviratne, S. I. (Creator), Stegehuis, A. (Creator), Wilson, R. J. S. (Creator), Andreu-Hayles, L. (Creator), Bale, R. J. (Creator), Bednarz, Z. (Creator), Boettger, T. (Creator), Berninger, F. (Creator), Büntgen, U. (Creator), Daux, V. (Creator), Dorado-Liñán, I. (Creator), Esper, J. (Creator), Friedrich, M. (Creator), Gagen, M. H. (Creator), Grabner, M. (Creator), Grudd, H. (Creator), Gunnarsson, B. E. (Creator), Gutiérrez, E. (Creator), Hafner, P. (Creator), Haupt, M. (Creator), Hilasvouri, E. (Creator), Heinrich, I. (Creator), Helle, G. (Creator), Jalkanen, R. (Creator), Jungner, H. (Creator), Kalela-Brundin, M. (Creator), Kessler, A. (Creator), Kirchhefer, A. J. (Creator), Klesse, S. (Creator), Krapiec, M. (Creator), Levanic, T. (Creator), Leuenberger, M. (Creator), Linderholm, H. W. (Creator), McCarroll, D. (Creator), Masson-Delmotte, V. (Creator), Pawelczyk, S. (Creator), Pazdur, A. (Creator), Planells, O. (Creator), Pukiene, R. (Creator), Rinne-Garmston, K. T. (Creator), Robertson, I. (Creator), Saracino, A. (Creator), Saurer, M. (Creator), Schleser, G. H. (Creator), Seftigen, K. (Creator), Siegwolf, R. W. T. (Creator), Sonninen, E. (Creator), Stievenard, M. (Creator), Szychowska-Krapiec, E. (Creator), Szymaszek, M. (Creator), Todaro, L. (Creator), Waterhouse, J. S. (Creator), Weigl-Kuska, M. (Creator), Weigt, R. (Creator), Wimmer, R. (Creator), Woodley, E. J. (Creator), Vitas, A. (Creator), Young, G. H. F. (Creator) & Loader, N. J. (Creator), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023
DOI: 10.25921/rt6p-df91
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Treydte, K., Liu, L., Padrón, R. S., Martínez-Sancho, E., Babst, F., Frank, D. C., Gessler, A., Kahmen, A., Poulter, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Stegehuis, A. I., Wilson, R., Andreu-Hayles, L., Bale, R., Bednarz, Z., Boettger, T., Berninger, F., Büntgen, U., Daux, V., ... Loader, N. J. (2024). Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years. Nature Geoscience, 17, 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8

@article{3d2cfc54f33d4066b4cb1166f5b26e68,

title = "Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years",

abstract = "The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe{\textquoteright}s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.",

author = "Kerstin Treydte and Laibao Liu and Padr{\'o}n, {Ryan S.} and Elisabet Mart{\'i}nez-Sancho and Flurin Babst and Frank, {David C.} and Arthur Gessler and Ansgar Kahmen and Benjamin Poulter and Seneviratne, {Sonia I.} and Stegehuis, {Annemiek I.} and Rob Wilson and Laia Andreu-Hayles and Roderick Bale and Zdzislaw Bednarz and Tatjana Boettger and Frank Berninger and Ulf B{\"u}ntgen and Valerie Daux and Isabel Dorado-Li{\~n}{\'a}n and Jan Esper and Michael Friedrich and Mary Gagen and Michael Grabner and H{\aa}kan Grudd and Gunnarsson, {Bj{\"o}rn E.} and Emilia Guti{\'e}rrez and Polona Hafner and Marika Haupt and Emmi Hilasvuori and Ingo Heinrich and Gerhard Helle and Risto Jalkanen and H{\"o}gne Jungner and Maarit Kalela-Brundin and Andreas Kessler and Andreas Kirchhefer and Stephan Klesse and Marek Krapiec and Tom Levani{\v c} and Markus Leuenberger and Linderholm, {Hans W.} and Danny McCarroll and Val{\'e}rie Masson-Delmotte and Slawomira Pawelczyk and Anna Pazdur and Octavi Planells and Rutile Pukiene and Rinne-Garmston, {Katja T.} and Iain Robertson and Antonio Saracino and Matthias Saurer and Schleser, {Gerhard H.} and Kristina Seftigen and Siegwolf, {Rolf T.W.} and Eloni Sonninen and Michel Stievenard and Elzbieta Szychowska-Krapiec and Malgorzata Szymaszek and Luigi Todaro and Waterhouse, {John S.} and Martin Weigl-Kuska and Weigt, {Rosemarie B.} and Rupert Wimmer and Woodley, {Ewan J.} and Adomas Vitas and Giles Young and Loader, {Neil J.}",

note = "Funding Information: This study was funded by the EC projects ISONET EVK2-CT-2002-00147 and Millennium FP6-2004-GLOBAL-017008-2 and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) projects iTREE CRSII3_136295 and TROXY 200021_175888. Other funding included ERC 724750 (AK), NASA{\textquoteright}s Terrestrial Ecology programme (BP), Slovenian Research Agency P4-0107 (TL, PH), MIUR-PRIN 2002 2002075152 & MIUR-PRIN 2005 2005072877 (AS, LT), PALEOMEX-ISOMEX programme CNRS-INSU (VD), Fundaci{\'o} La Caixa through the Junior Leader Program LCF/BQ/LR18/11640004 (IDL), ERC 755865 & Academy of Finland 295319 and 343059 (KR-G), Czech Science Foundation CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797 (UB, JE), Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology REN2002-11476-E/CLI (EG), and ERC AdG 882727 (JE), UKRI EP/X025098/1 (NJL). L.L., R.P., and S.I.S. acknowledge support from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (grant agreement 821003 (4 C)). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the funding agencies and supporting institutions. ",

year = "2024",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8",

language = "English",

volume = "17",

pages = "58–65",

journal = "Nature Geoscience",

issn = "1752-0894",

publisher = "Nature publishing group",

}

Treydte, K, Liu, L, Padrón, RS, Martínez-Sancho, E, Babst, F, Frank, DC, Gessler, A, Kahmen, A, Poulter, B, Seneviratne, SI, Stegehuis, AI, Wilson, R, Andreu-Hayles, L, Bale, R, Bednarz, Z, Boettger, T, Berninger, F, Büntgen, U, Daux, V, Dorado-Liñán, I, Esper, J, Friedrich, M, Gagen, M, Grabner, M, Grudd, H, Gunnarsson, BE, Gutiérrez, E, Hafner, P, Haupt, M, Hilasvuori, E, Heinrich, I, Helle, G, Jalkanen, R, Jungner, H, Kalela-Brundin, M, Kessler, A, Kirchhefer, A, Klesse, S, Krapiec, M, Levanič, T, Leuenberger, M, Linderholm, HW, McCarroll, D, Masson-Delmotte, V, Pawelczyk, S, Pazdur, A, Planells, O, Pukiene, R, Rinne-Garmston, KT, Robertson, I, Saracino, A, Saurer, M, Schleser, GH, Seftigen, K, Siegwolf, RTW, Sonninen, E, Stievenard, M, Szychowska-Krapiec, E, Szymaszek, M, Todaro, L, Waterhouse, JS, Weigl-Kuska, M, Weigt, RB, Wimmer, R, Woodley, EJ, Vitas, A, Young, G & Loader, NJ 2024, 'Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years', Nature Geoscience, vol. 17, pp. 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8

TY - JOUR

T1 - Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

AU - Treydte, Kerstin

AU - Liu, Laibao

AU - Padrón, Ryan S.

AU - Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet

AU - Babst, Flurin

AU - Frank, David C.

AU - Gessler, Arthur

AU - Kahmen, Ansgar

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I.

AU - Stegehuis, Annemiek I.

AU - Wilson, Rob

AU - Andreu-Hayles, Laia

AU - Bale, Roderick

AU - Bednarz, Zdzislaw

AU - Boettger, Tatjana

AU - Berninger, Frank

AU - Büntgen, Ulf

AU - Daux, Valerie

AU - Dorado-Liñán, Isabel

AU - Esper, Jan

AU - Friedrich, Michael

AU - Gagen, Mary

AU - Grabner, Michael

AU - Grudd, Håkan

AU - Gunnarsson, Björn E.

AU - Gutiérrez, Emilia

AU - Hafner, Polona

AU - Haupt, Marika

AU - Hilasvuori, Emmi

AU - Heinrich, Ingo

AU - Helle, Gerhard

AU - Jalkanen, Risto

AU - Jungner, Högne

AU - Kalela-Brundin, Maarit

AU - Kessler, Andreas

AU - Kirchhefer, Andreas

AU - Klesse, Stephan

AU - Krapiec, Marek

AU - Levanič, Tom

AU - Leuenberger, Markus

AU - Linderholm, Hans W.

AU - McCarroll, Danny

AU - Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

AU - Pawelczyk, Slawomira

AU - Pazdur, Anna

AU - Planells, Octavi

AU - Pukiene, Rutile

AU - Rinne-Garmston, Katja T.

AU - Robertson, Iain

AU - Saracino, Antonio

AU - Saurer, Matthias

AU - Schleser, Gerhard H.

AU - Seftigen, Kristina

AU - Siegwolf, Rolf T.W.

AU - Sonninen, Eloni

AU - Stievenard, Michel

AU - Szychowska-Krapiec, Elzbieta

AU - Szymaszek, Malgorzata

AU - Todaro, Luigi

AU - Waterhouse, John S.

AU - Weigl-Kuska, Martin

AU - Weigt, Rosemarie B.

AU - Wimmer, Rupert

AU - Woodley, Ewan J.

AU - Vitas, Adomas

AU - Young, Giles

AU - Loader, Neil J.

N1 - Funding Information: This study was funded by the EC projects ISONET EVK2-CT-2002-00147 and Millennium FP6-2004-GLOBAL-017008-2 and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) projects iTREE CRSII3_136295 and TROXY 200021_175888. Other funding included ERC 724750 (AK), NASA’s Terrestrial Ecology programme (BP), Slovenian Research Agency P4-0107 (TL, PH), MIUR-PRIN 2002 2002075152 & MIUR-PRIN 2005 2005072877 (AS, LT), PALEOMEX-ISOMEX programme CNRS-INSU (VD), Fundació La Caixa through the Junior Leader Program LCF/BQ/LR18/11640004 (IDL), ERC 755865 & Academy of Finland 295319 and 343059 (KR-G), Czech Science Foundation CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797 (UB, JE), Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology REN2002-11476-E/CLI (EG), and ERC AdG 882727 (JE), UKRI EP/X025098/1 (NJL). L.L., R.P., and S.I.S. acknowledge support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (grant agreement 821003 (4 C)). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the funding agencies and supporting institutions.

PY - 2024/1

Y1 - 2024/1

N2 - The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe’s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.

AB - The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe’s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.

U2 - 10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8

DO - 10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85180678867

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 17

SP - 58

EP - 65

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

ER -

Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

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NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - European Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Network from 1600-2013 CE

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