Projection of migrant family life-courses in England and Wales using multistate models and microsimulation

This study projects family life-courses of immigrants and their descendants in England and Wales by using microsimulation. While previous projections have estimated the size of ethnic groups, this is the first study to examine how family and age structures of migrant populations evolve over time. Such an exercise is novel and will improve our understanding of how migrant populations change across generations. Our model uses data from the 2011 census and partnership formation, dissolution and fertility rates from our previous research. The results show, first, significant heterogeneity in family patterns among migrant populations. Second, this heterogeneity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants, especially in fertility levels. Third, the descendants of immigrants will become the main group among minority populations over the next two decades. Finally, the differences between the majority population and people with a migrant family background are reduced, but they still persist, especially in partnership patterns. This study shows an increasing similarity in the family behaviour of majority and minority populations, but also that it may take a generation or two before the differences vanish. This study also demonstrates that microsimulation is a useful tool in projecting life histories and family structures of migrants and their descendants.