Preliminary findings in investigating and estimating fertility rates by ethnic group within small areas’: PopFest annual conference 2004 (Leeds)

Accurate population projections are required for a range of aspects in planning. It is essential to ensure that the demographic rates used to make these projections are a true reflection of the underlying population. Presented is a focused part of a wider research projection to create population projections by small areas and ethnic groups.
In the presentation the context of the problem is set: how to estimate age-specific fertility rates for different ethnic groups in small areas where there are very small numbers of births, with the specific aim of use in a population projection. Taking Bradford wards as a case study, the rate estimation problem using small numbers of birth events is addressed and examples given. A solution involving combining of areas is presented and its effectiveness is compared with less detailed rate estimation methods, while also being assed by using the actual births that occurred over a testing period.