Population sustainability in rural communities: the case of two British National Park Areas

This paper uses projections of population and housing to explore issues of
population sustainability in the Cairngorms and Peak District National Parks. The
projections demonstrate that if recent trends of births, deaths and migration continue both National Parks will not be sustainable as the younger profile of out-migration relative to in-migration causes populations to become increasingly elderly. Whilst these processes of demographic change are common to many rural areas we demonstrate that the effects of migration and associated population ageing are more extreme within the National Parks than in surrounding areas. Further projection scenarios show that the number of new houses required to prevent the decline in the working age population is politically unfeasible. Policies that aim to change the migration age pattern and to cater for the needs of the elderly population are essential if the sustainability and vibrancy of local communities are to be maintained.