Population projections of minority ethnic groups in England: What can we conclude from the differences with the 2001 Census? British Society for Population Studies annual conference 2003 (Bristol)

The paper will offer an assessment of various population projections by ethnic group for England only. The ten main classifications of ethnic group as used in the 1991 census are projected forward and evaluated using the 2001 census results.
The forecasting package Popgroup, which uses the standard cohort component method to project, is used to create the projections. An introduction is given to all the different data sources incorporated in the projections, and the various sets of assumptions for the components of change over the period are outlined. For example, for fertility, one scenario of using age-specific fertility rates for each of the ten ethnic groups is compared to projections containing different fertility assumptions. Similarly for mortality, different scenarios of assumptions are considered.
The most plausible projection of England's natural increase over the decade will then be assessed using the 2001 census results. The projection will also be evaluated with respect to the changing categories of ethnic group since the 1991 census. Some of the newly created categories, for example the mixed categories included in the 2001 census, are amalgamated in order to calibrate the projection for evaluation. Interpretation of the findings are reported, with information on migration taking place over the decade, and a short description is given on the changing age structures of the minority ethnic groups.