Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Edward R. Cook; Richard Seager; Yochanan Kushnir; Keith R. Briffa; Ulf Büntgen; David Frank; Paul J. Krusic; Willy Tegel; Gerard van der Schrier; Laia Andreu-Hayles; Mike Baillie; Claudia Baittinger; Niels Bleicher; Niels Bonde; David Brown; Marco Carrer; Richard Cooper; Katarina Čufar; Christoph Dittmar; Jan Esper; Carol Griggs; Björn Gunnarson; Björn Günther; Emilia Gutierrez; Kristof Haneca; Samuli Helama; Franz Herzig; Karl-Uwe Heussner; Jutta Hofmann; Pavel Janda; Raymond Kontic; Nesibe Köse; Tomáš Kyncl; Tom Levaniv c; Hans Linderholm; Sturt Manning; Thomas M. Melvin; Daniel Miles; Burkhard Neuwirth; Kurt Nicolussi; Paola Nola; Momchil Panayotov; Ionel Popa; Andreas Rothe; Kristina Seftigen; Andrea Seim; Helene Svarva; Miroslav Svoboda; Terje Thun; Mauri Timonen; Ramzi Touchan; Volodymyr Trotsiuk; Valerie Trouet; Felix Walder; Tomasz Wazny; Rob Wilson; Christian Zang

doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500561

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Edward R. Cook, Richard Seager, Yochanan Kushnir, Keith R. Briffa, Ulf Büntgen, David Frank, Paul J. Krusic, Willy Tegel, Gerard van der Schrier, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Mike Baillie, Claudia Baittinger, Niels Bleicher, Niels Bonde, David Brown, Marco Carrer, Richard Cooper, Katarina Čufar, Christoph Dittmar, Jan EsperCarol Griggs, Björn Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Emilia Gutierrez, Kristof Haneca, Samuli Helama, Franz Herzig, Karl-Uwe Heussner, Jutta Hofmann, Pavel Janda, Raymond Kontic, Nesibe Köse, Tomáš Kyncl, Tom Levaniv c, Hans Linderholm, Sturt Manning, Thomas M. Melvin, Daniel Miles, Burkhard Neuwirth, Kurt Nicolussi, Paola Nola, Momchil Panayotov, Ionel Popa, Andreas Rothe, Kristina Seftigen, Andrea Seim, Helene Svarva, Miroslav Svoboda, Terje Thun, Mauri Timonen, Ramzi Touchan, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Valerie Trouet, Felix Walder, Tomasz Wazny, Rob Wilson, Christian Zang

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

Original language	English
Article number	e1500561
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Science Advances
Volume	1
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561
Publication status	Published - 6 Nov 2015

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 15 Life on Land

Keywords

Drought atlas
Megadrought
Dendroclimatology
Tree-ring reconstruction
Mediterranean drying
Climate change
Greenhouse gas forcing

Access to Document

10.1126/sciadv.1500561Licence: CC BY-NC

Wilson_2015_SA_Megadroughts_CC
Copyright © 2015, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
Final published version, 2.13 MBLicence: CC BY-NC

Cite this

Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., ... Zang, C. (2015). Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Science Advances, 1(10), 1-9. Article e1500561. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561

@article{b830c3a895254b5788dcbd7b2623af31,

title = "Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era",

abstract = "Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.",

keywords = "Drought atlas, Megadrought, Dendroclimatology, Tree-ring reconstruction, Mediterranean drying, Climate change, Greenhouse gas forcing",

author = "Cook, \{Edward R.\} and Richard Seager and Yochanan Kushnir and Briffa, \{Keith R.\} and Ulf B{\"u}ntgen and David Frank and Krusic, \{Paul J.\} and Willy Tegel and \{van der Schrier\}, Gerard and Laia Andreu-Hayles and Mike Baillie and Claudia Baittinger and Niels Bleicher and Niels Bonde and David Brown and Marco Carrer and Richard Cooper and Katarina {\v C}ufar and Christoph Dittmar and Jan Esper and Carol Griggs and Bj{\"o}rn Gunnarson and Bj{\"o}rn G{\"u}nther and Emilia Gutierrez and Kristof Haneca and Samuli Helama and Franz Herzig and Karl-Uwe Heussner and Jutta Hofmann and Pavel Janda and Raymond Kontic and Nesibe K{\"o}se and Tom{\'a}{\v s} Kyncl and \{Levaniv c\}, Tom and Hans Linderholm and Sturt Manning and Melvin, \{Thomas M.\} and Daniel Miles and Burkhard Neuwirth and Kurt Nicolussi and Paola Nola and Momchil Panayotov and Ionel Popa and Andreas Rothe and Kristina Seftigen and Andrea Seim and Helene Svarva and Miroslav Svoboda and Terje Thun and Mauri Timonen and Ramzi Touchan and Volodymyr Trotsiuk and Valerie Trouet and Felix Walder and Tomasz Wazny and Rob Wilson and Christian Zang",

note = "Funding: The authors thank the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Change Data and Detection Program for supporting this project (award NA10OAR4310123) and the National Science Foundation Earth System History Program (awards 0075956 and ESH0317288), ATM GEO/ATM Paleoclimate Program (award 0758486), and award 1103314 for additional long-term support in developing this research in the Mediterranean region.",

year = "2015",

month = nov,

day = "6",

doi = "10.1126/sciadv.1500561",

language = "English",

volume = "1",

pages = "1--9",

journal = "Science Advances",

issn = "2375-2548",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "10",

}

Cook, ER, Seager, R, Kushnir, Y, Briffa, KR, Büntgen, U, Frank, D, Krusic, PJ, Tegel, W, van der Schrier, G, Andreu-Hayles, L, Baillie, M, Baittinger, C, Bleicher, N, Bonde, N, Brown, D, Carrer, M, Cooper, R, Čufar, K, Dittmar, C, Esper, J, Griggs, C, Gunnarson, B, Günther, B, Gutierrez, E, Haneca, K, Helama, S, Herzig, F, Heussner, K-U, Hofmann, J, Janda, P, Kontic, R, Köse, N, Kyncl, T, Levaniv c, T, Linderholm, H, Manning, S, Melvin, TM, Miles, D, Neuwirth, B, Nicolussi, K, Nola, P, Panayotov, M, Popa, I, Rothe, A, Seftigen, K, Seim, A, Svarva, H, Svoboda, M, Thun, T, Timonen, M, Touchan, R, Trotsiuk, V, Trouet, V, Walder, F, Wazny, T, Wilson, R & Zang, C 2015, 'Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era', Science Advances, vol. 1, no. 10, e1500561, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561

TY - JOUR

T1 - Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

AU - Cook, Edward R.

AU - Seager, Richard

AU - Kushnir, Yochanan

AU - Briffa, Keith R.

AU - Büntgen, Ulf

AU - Frank, David

AU - Krusic, Paul J.

AU - Tegel, Willy

AU - van der Schrier, Gerard

AU - Andreu-Hayles, Laia

AU - Baillie, Mike

AU - Baittinger, Claudia

AU - Bleicher, Niels

AU - Bonde, Niels

AU - Brown, David

AU - Carrer, Marco

AU - Cooper, Richard

AU - Čufar, Katarina

AU - Dittmar, Christoph

AU - Esper, Jan

AU - Griggs, Carol

AU - Gunnarson, Björn

AU - Günther, Björn

AU - Gutierrez, Emilia

AU - Haneca, Kristof

AU - Helama, Samuli

AU - Herzig, Franz

AU - Heussner, Karl-Uwe

AU - Hofmann, Jutta

AU - Janda, Pavel

AU - Kontic, Raymond

AU - Köse, Nesibe

AU - Kyncl, Tomáš

AU - Levaniv c, Tom

AU - Linderholm, Hans

AU - Manning, Sturt

AU - Melvin, Thomas M.

AU - Miles, Daniel

AU - Neuwirth, Burkhard

AU - Nicolussi, Kurt

AU - Nola, Paola

AU - Panayotov, Momchil

AU - Popa, Ionel

AU - Rothe, Andreas

AU - Seftigen, Kristina

AU - Seim, Andrea

AU - Svarva, Helene

AU - Svoboda, Miroslav

AU - Thun, Terje

AU - Timonen, Mauri

AU - Touchan, Ramzi

AU - Trotsiuk, Volodymyr

AU - Trouet, Valerie

AU - Walder, Felix

AU - Wazny, Tomasz

AU - Wilson, Rob

AU - Zang, Christian

N1 - Funding: The authors thank the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Change Data and Detection Program for supporting this project (award NA10OAR4310123) and the National Science Foundation Earth System History Program (awards 0075956 and ESH0317288), ATM GEO/ATM Paleoclimate Program (award 0758486), and award 1103314 for additional long-term support in developing this research in the Mediterranean region.

PY - 2015/11/6

Y1 - 2015/11/6

N2 - Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

AB - Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

KW - Drought atlas

KW - Megadrought

KW - Dendroclimatology

KW - Tree-ring reconstruction

KW - Mediterranean drying

KW - Climate change

KW - Greenhouse gas forcing

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84992433804

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.1500561

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.1500561

M3 - Article

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 1

SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - Science Advances

JF - Science Advances

IS - 10

M1 - e1500561

ER -

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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