North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant

Alison Johnston; Amanda D Rodewald; Matt Strimas-Mackey; Tom Auer; Wesley M Hochachka; Andrew N Stillman; Courtney L Davis; Viviana Ruiz-Gutierrez; Adriaan M Dokter; Eliot T Miller; Orin Robinson; Shawn Ligocki; Lauren Oldham Jaromczyk; Cynthia Crowley; Christopher L Wood; Daniel Fink

doi:10.1126/science.adn4381

North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant

Alison Johnston^*, Amanda D Rodewald, Matt Strimas-Mackey, Tom Auer, Wesley M Hochachka, Andrew N Stillman, Courtney L Davis, Viviana Ruiz-Gutierrez, Adriaan M Dokter, Eliot T Miller, Orin Robinson, Shawn Ligocki, Lauren Oldham Jaromczyk, Cynthia Crowley, Christopher L Wood, Daniel Fink

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Efforts to address declines of North American birds have been constrained by limited availability of fine-scale information about population change. By using participatory science data from eBird, we estimated continental population change and relative abundance at 27-kilometer resolution for 495 bird species from 2007 to 2021. Results revealed high and previously undetected spatial heterogeneity in trends; although 75% of species were declining, 97% of species showed separate areas of significantly increasing and decreasing populations. Populations tended to decline most steeply in strongholds where species were most abundant, yet they fared better where species were least abundant. These high-resolution trends improve our ability to understand population dynamics, prioritize recovery efforts, and guide conservation at a time when action is urgently needed.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	532-537
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	388
Issue number	6746
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn4381
Publication status	Published - 1 May 2025

Keywords

Animals
Birds
Conservation of natural resources
North America
Population dynamics

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Johnston-2025-North-American-bird-declines-are-Science-AAM-CCBY
Copyright © 2025 the Authors. This work has been made available online in accordance with the University of St Andrews Open Access policy. This accepted manuscript is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn4381.
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Cite this

Johnston, A., Rodewald, A. D., Strimas-Mackey, M., Auer, T., Hochachka, W. M., Stillman, A. N., Davis, C. L., Ruiz-Gutierrez, V., Dokter, A. M., Miller, E. T., Robinson, O., Ligocki, S., Jaromczyk, L. O., Crowley, C., Wood, C. L., & Fink, D. (2025). North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant. Science, 388(6746), 532-537. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn4381

@article{e848ce535a9a4d75976ede89a99c9544,

title = "North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant",

abstract = "Efforts to address declines of North American birds have been constrained by limited availability of fine-scale information about population change. By using participatory science data from eBird, we estimated continental population change and relative abundance at 27-kilometer resolution for 495 bird species from 2007 to 2021. Results revealed high and previously undetected spatial heterogeneity in trends; although 75\% of species were declining, 97\% of species showed separate areas of significantly increasing and decreasing populations. Populations tended to decline most steeply in strongholds where species were most abundant, yet they fared better where species were least abundant. These high-resolution trends improve our ability to understand population dynamics, prioritize recovery efforts, and guide conservation at a time when action is urgently needed.",

keywords = "Animals, Birds, Conservation of natural resources, North America, Population dynamics",

author = "Alison Johnston and Rodewald, \{Amanda D\} and Matt Strimas-Mackey and Tom Auer and Hochachka, \{Wesley M\} and Stillman, \{Andrew N\} and Davis, \{Courtney L\} and Viviana Ruiz-Gutierrez and Dokter, \{Adriaan M\} and Miller, \{Eliot T\} and Orin Robinson and Shawn Ligocki and Jaromczyk, \{Lauren Oldham\} and Cynthia Crowley and Wood, \{Christopher L\} and Daniel Fink",

note = "Funding: This work was supported by the Leon Levy Foundation (D.F.), the Wolf Creek Foundation, and the National Science Foundation DBI-1939187 (C.L.W., D.F.). Computing support from the National Science Foundation was provided through CNS-1059284 and CCF-1522054. This work used Bridges2 at Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center and Anvil (45) at the Rosen Center for Advanced Computing at Purdue University through allocation DEB200010 (D.F., T.A., S.L., O.R.) from the Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Coordination Ecosystem: Services \& Support (ACCESS) program, which is supported by NSF grants 2138259, 2138286, 2138307, 2137603, and 2138296.",

year = "2025",

month = may,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1126/science.adn4381",

language = "English",

volume = "388",

pages = "532--537",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

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Johnston, A, Rodewald, AD, Strimas-Mackey, M, Auer, T, Hochachka, WM, Stillman, AN, Davis, CL, Ruiz-Gutierrez, V, Dokter, AM, Miller, ET, Robinson, O, Ligocki, S, Jaromczyk, LO, Crowley, C, Wood, CL & Fink, D 2025, 'North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant', Science, vol. 388, no. 6746, pp. 532-537. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn4381

TY - JOUR

T1 - North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant

AU - Johnston, Alison

AU - Rodewald, Amanda D

AU - Strimas-Mackey, Matt

AU - Auer, Tom

AU - Hochachka, Wesley M

AU - Stillman, Andrew N

AU - Davis, Courtney L

AU - Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana

AU - Dokter, Adriaan M

AU - Miller, Eliot T

AU - Robinson, Orin

AU - Ligocki, Shawn

AU - Jaromczyk, Lauren Oldham

AU - Crowley, Cynthia

AU - Wood, Christopher L

AU - Fink, Daniel

N1 - Funding: This work was supported by the Leon Levy Foundation (D.F.), the Wolf Creek Foundation, and the National Science Foundation DBI-1939187 (C.L.W., D.F.). Computing support from the National Science Foundation was provided through CNS-1059284 and CCF-1522054. This work used Bridges2 at Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center and Anvil (45) at the Rosen Center for Advanced Computing at Purdue University through allocation DEB200010 (D.F., T.A., S.L., O.R.) from the Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Coordination Ecosystem: Services & Support (ACCESS) program, which is supported by NSF grants 2138259, 2138286, 2138307, 2137603, and 2138296.

PY - 2025/5/1

Y1 - 2025/5/1

N2 - Efforts to address declines of North American birds have been constrained by limited availability of fine-scale information about population change. By using participatory science data from eBird, we estimated continental population change and relative abundance at 27-kilometer resolution for 495 bird species from 2007 to 2021. Results revealed high and previously undetected spatial heterogeneity in trends; although 75% of species were declining, 97% of species showed separate areas of significantly increasing and decreasing populations. Populations tended to decline most steeply in strongholds where species were most abundant, yet they fared better where species were least abundant. These high-resolution trends improve our ability to understand population dynamics, prioritize recovery efforts, and guide conservation at a time when action is urgently needed.

AB - Efforts to address declines of North American birds have been constrained by limited availability of fine-scale information about population change. By using participatory science data from eBird, we estimated continental population change and relative abundance at 27-kilometer resolution for 495 bird species from 2007 to 2021. Results revealed high and previously undetected spatial heterogeneity in trends; although 75% of species were declining, 97% of species showed separate areas of significantly increasing and decreasing populations. Populations tended to decline most steeply in strongholds where species were most abundant, yet they fared better where species were least abundant. These high-resolution trends improve our ability to understand population dynamics, prioritize recovery efforts, and guide conservation at a time when action is urgently needed.

KW - Animals

KW - Birds

KW - Conservation of natural resources

KW - North America

KW - Population dynamics

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105004484674

U2 - 10.1126/science.adn4381

DO - 10.1126/science.adn4381

M3 - Article

C2 - 40310906

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 388

SP - 532

EP - 537

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6746

ER -

North American bird declines are greatest where species are most abundant

Abstract

Keywords

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