Multiple system estimation of victims of human trafficking: model assessment and selection

Maarten Cruyff; Antony Overstall; Michail Papathomas; Rachel McCrea

doi:10.1177/0011128720981908

Multiple system estimation of victims of human trafficking: model assessment and selection

Maarten Cruyff, Antony Overstall, Michail Papathomas, Rachel McCrea

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Abstract

Recently, multiple systems estimation (MSE) has been applied to estimate the number of victims of human trafficking in different countries. The estimation procedure consists of a log-linear analysis of a contingency table of population registers and covariates. As the number of potential models increases exponentially with the number of registers and covariates, it is practically impossible to fit and compare all models. Therefore, the model search needs to be restricted to a small subset of all potential models. This paper addresses principles and criteria for model assessment and selection for MSE of human trafficking with special attention to sparsity which is typical to human trafficking data. The concepts are illustrated on data from Slovakia and Romania.

Original language	English
Number of pages	17
Journal	Crime and Delinquency
Volume	Online First
Early online date	22 Dec 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128720981908
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 22 Dec 2020

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 5 Gender Equality
SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

Log-linear modeling
iImation criteria
Modern slavery
BIC
AIC

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10.1177/0011128720981908Licence: CC BY

Cruyff_2020_CD_Humantrafficking_CC
Copyright © The Author(s) 2020. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
Final published version, 258 KBLicence: CC BY

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abstract = "Recently, multiple systems estimation (MSE) has been applied to estimate the number of victims of human trafficking in different countries. The estimation procedure consists of a log-linear analysis of a contingency table of population registers and covariates. As the number of potential models increases exponentially with the number of registers and covariates, it is practically impossible to fit and compare all models. Therefore, the model search needs to be restricted to a small subset of all potential models. This paper addresses principles and criteria for model assessment and selection for MSE of human trafficking with special attention to sparsity which is typical to human trafficking data. The concepts are illustrated on data from Slovakia and Romania.",

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AU - Cruyff, Maarten

AU - Overstall, Antony

AU - Papathomas, Michail

AU - McCrea, Rachel

PY - 2020/12/22

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AB - Recently, multiple systems estimation (MSE) has been applied to estimate the number of victims of human trafficking in different countries. The estimation procedure consists of a log-linear analysis of a contingency table of population registers and covariates. As the number of potential models increases exponentially with the number of registers and covariates, it is practically impossible to fit and compare all models. Therefore, the model search needs to be restricted to a small subset of all potential models. This paper addresses principles and criteria for model assessment and selection for MSE of human trafficking with special attention to sparsity which is typical to human trafficking data. The concepts are illustrated on data from Slovakia and Romania.

KW - Log-linear modeling

KW - iImation criteria

KW - Modern slavery

KW - BIC

KW - AIC

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85097315374

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VL - Online First

JO - Crime and Delinquency

JF - Crime and Delinquency

ER -

Multiple system estimation of victims of human trafficking: model assessment and selection

Abstract

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Keywords

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