Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L.K. Murray; Diogo F.P. Marques; Ross L. Cameron; Alison Potts; Jennifer Bishop; Beatrix von Wissmann; Naoma William; Arlene J. Reynolds; Chris Robertson; Jim McMenamin

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L.K. Murray^*
, Diogo F.P. Marques
, Ross L. Cameron
, Alison Potts
, Jennifer Bishop
, Beatrix von Wissmann
, Naoma William
, Arlene J. Reynolds
, Chris Robertson
, Jim McMenamin

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

Original language	English
Article number	18-00079
Journal	Eurosurveillance
Volume	23
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079
Publication status	Published - 15 Mar 2018

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SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

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10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

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Murray, J. L. K., Marques, D. F. P., Cameron, R. L., Potts, A., Bishop, J., von Wissmann, B., William, N., Reynolds, A. J., Robertson, C., & McMenamin, J. (2018). Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. Eurosurveillance, 23(11), Article 18-00079. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

@article{1bd9c9ec3a2c4fd98ea48d323c46a527,

title = "Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date",

abstract = "Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.",

author = "Murray, \{Josephine L.K.\} and Marques, \{Diogo F.P.\} and Cameron, \{Ross L.\} and Alison Potts and Jennifer Bishop and \{von Wissmann\}, Beatrix and Naoma William and Reynolds, \{Arlene J.\} and Chris Robertson and Jim McMenamin",

year = "2018",

month = mar,

day = "15",

doi = "10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079",

language = "English",

volume = "23",

journal = "Eurosurveillance",

issn = "1025-496X",

publisher = "European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)",

number = "11",

}

Murray, JLK, Marques, DFP, Cameron, RL, Potts, A, Bishop, J, von Wissmann, B, William, N, Reynolds, AJ, Robertson, C & McMenamin, J 2018, 'Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date', Eurosurveillance, vol. 23, no. 11, 18-00079. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. / Murray, Josephine L.K.; Marques, Diogo F.P.; Cameron, Ross L. et al.
In: Eurosurveillance, Vol. 23, No. 11, 18-00079, 15.03.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

AU - Murray, Josephine L.K.

AU - Marques, Diogo F.P.

AU - Cameron, Ross L.

AU - Potts, Alison

AU - Bishop, Jennifer

AU - von Wissmann, Beatrix

AU - William, Naoma

AU - Reynolds, Arlene J.

AU - Robertson, Chris

AU - McMenamin, Jim

PY - 2018/3/15

Y1 - 2018/3/15

N2 - Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

AB - Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85044714710

U2 - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

DO - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

M3 - Article

C2 - 29560854

AN - SCOPUS:85044714710

SN - 1025-496X

VL - 23

JO - Eurosurveillance

JF - Eurosurveillance

IS - 11

M1 - 18-00079

ER -

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

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