Modelling uncertainty in stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis

Ian Noel Durbach; Jon Calder

doi:10.1016/j.omega.2015.10.015

Modelling uncertainty in stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis

Ian Noel Durbach, Jon Calder

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23 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

This paper considers problem contexts in which decision makers are unable or unwilling to assess trade-off information precisely. A simulation experiment is used to assess (a) how closely a rank order of alternatives based on partial information and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) can approximate results obtained using full-information multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) with multiplicative utility, and (b) which characteristics of the decision problem influence the accuracy of this approximation. We find that fairly good accuracy can be achieved with limited preference information, and is highest if either quantiles and probability distributions are used to represent uncertainty.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	13-23
Journal	Omega: The International Journal of Management Science
Volume	64
Early online date	6 Nov 2015
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2015.10.015
Publication status	Published - Oct 2016

Keywords

Decision making/process
Decision support systems
Multicriteria
Risk
Sensitvity analysis

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10.1016/j.omega.2015.10.015

smaa-uncertainty
Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2015.10.015.
Accepted author manuscript, 989 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Ian Noel Durbach
- id52st-andrews.acuk
- School of Mathematics and Statistics - Senior Research Fellow
- Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling
Person: Academic - Research

Cite this

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KW - Risk

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Modelling uncertainty in stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis

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