Modelling inter-ward migration in Hereford and Worcester: The importance of housing growth and tenure

Modelling inter-ward migration in Hereford and Worcester: the importance of housing growth and tenure, Reg. Studies 32, 113-132. Most migrations are short-distance, local-level moves, but few studies have attempted to model the flows within a single non-metropolitan county. In this paper, we use the 1991 Special Migration Statistics to analyse inter-ward flows in the British county of Hereford and Worcester. New modelling techniques developed in recent years, based on the Poisson distribution, are used in this research which partially overcome the under-dispersion problem resulting from modelling zero and very small flows. Various social, economic and housing variables have been selected to estimate a migration model using a step-wise approach. Analysis at this scale provides the potential for more detailed generalization about migration processes such as suburbanization, counterurbanization, intra-urban mobility rural depopulation and the relationship between housing and demographic change at the local level. Unlike migration flows over long distances, which are often employment related, these flows are primarily motivated by residential requirements and housing type and growth are identified as key variables in the interpretation of these migration patterns.