Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

Anna Crawford; Douglas I Benn; Joe Todd; Jan Åström; Jeremy  Bassis; Thomas Zwinger

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7

Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

Anna Crawford, Douglas I Benn, Joe Todd, Jan Åström, Jeremy Bassis, Thomas Zwinger

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.

Original language	English
Article number	2701
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7
Publication status	Published - 11 May 2021

Keywords

Glaciology
Calving
Ice failure

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7Licence: CC BY

Crawford_2021_NatComm_Marine-ice_CC
Copyright © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
Final published version, 1.18 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{aa085ece56724a7d9d5a92a9fbd651cf,

title = "Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization",

abstract = "Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg m{\'e}lange.",

keywords = "Glaciology, Calving, Ice failure",

author = "Anna Crawford and Benn, {Douglas I} and Joe Todd and Jan {\AA}str{\"o}m and Jeremy Bassis and Thomas Zwinger",

note = "This work is from the DOMINOS project, a component of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC). DOMINOS is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC: Grant NE/S006605/1). This article represents ITGC Contribution No. ITGC-020. The model simulations were conducted with computational resources provided by NERC and PRACE.",

year = "2021",

month = may,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7",

language = "English",

volume = "12",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature publishing group",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

AU - Crawford, Anna

AU - Benn, Douglas I

AU - Todd, Joe

AU - Åström, Jan

AU - Bassis, Jeremy

AU - Zwinger, Thomas

N1 - This work is from the DOMINOS project, a component of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC). DOMINOS is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC: Grant NE/S006605/1). This article represents ITGC Contribution No. ITGC-020. The model simulations were conducted with computational resources provided by NERC and PRACE.

PY - 2021/5/11

Y1 - 2021/5/11

N2 - Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.

AB - Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.

KW - Glaciology

KW - Calving

KW - Ice failure

UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23070-7#Sec15

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7

DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7

M3 - Article

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

M1 - 2701

ER -

Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

DOMINOS: Disintegration of marine ice-sheets using novel optimised simulations (DOMINOS)

Cite this

Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

DOMINOS: Disintegration of marine ice-sheets using novel optimised simulations (DOMINOS)

Cite this