TY - JOUR
T1 - Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
AU - Hyder, K.
AU - Rossberg, A.G.
AU - Allen, J.I.
AU - Austen, M.C.
AU - Barciela, R.M.
AU - Bannister, H.J.
AU - Blackwell, P.G.
AU - Blanchard, J.L.
AU - Burrows, M.T.
AU - Defriez, E.
AU - Dorrington, T.
AU - Edwards, K.P.
AU - Garcia-Carreras, B.
AU - Heath, M.R.
AU - Hembury, D.J.
AU - Heymans, J.J.
AU - Holt, J.
AU - Houle, J.E.
AU - Jennings, S.
AU - Mackinson, S.
AU - Malcolm, S.J.
AU - McPike, R.
AU - Mee, L.
AU - Mills, D.K.
AU - Montgomery, C.
AU - Pearson, D.
AU - Pinnegar, J.K.
AU - Pollicino, M.
AU - Popova, E.E.
AU - Rae, L.
AU - Rogers, S.I.
AU - Speirs, D.
AU - Spence, M.A.
AU - Thorpe, R.
AU - Turner, R.K.
AU - van der Molen, J.
AU - Yool, A.
AU - Paterson, David Maxwell
N1 - Robert Thorpe received financial aid from the European Commission (OCEAN-CERTAIN, FP7-ENV-2013-6.1-1; no: 603773). Steve Mackinson was supported by GAP2 (EU FP7 project, Grant agreement 266544) and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Project MF1228 “Linking Physics to Fisheries Management”. Simon Jennings was supported by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) project “Integration of fisheries and environmental management” (MF1225).
PY - 2015/11
Y1 - 2015/11
N2 - Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.
AB - Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.
KW - Ecosystem models
KW - Marine policy and management
KW - UK environmental assessment, management, and monitoring
U2 - 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.07.015
DO - 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.07.015
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84940946561
SN - 0308-597X
VL - 61
SP - 291
EP - 302
JO - Marine Policy
JF - Marine Policy
ER -
