Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Martin J. P. Sullivan; Simon L. Lewis; Kofi Affum-Baffoe; Carolina Castilho; Flavia Costa; Aida Cuni Sanchez; Corneille E. N. Ewango; Wannes Hubau; Beatriz Marimon; Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza; Lan Qie; Bonaventure Sonke; Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez; Timothy R. Baker; Roel J. W. Brienen; Ted R. Feldpausch; David Galbraith; Manuel Gloor; Yadvinder Malhi; Shin-Ichiro Aiba; Miguel N. Alexiades; Everton C. Almeida; Edmar Almeida de Oliveira; Esteban Alvarez Davila; Patricia Alvarez Loayza; Ana Andrade; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Luiz E. O. C. Aragao; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Eric J. M. M. Arets; Luzmila Arroyo; Peter Ashton; Gerardo C. Aymard; Fabricio B. Baccaro; Lindsay F. Banin; Christopher Baraloto; Plinio Barbosa Camargo; Jos Barlow; Jorcely Barroso; Jean-Francois Bastin; Sarah A. Batterman; Hans Beeckman; Serge K. Begne; Amy C. Bennett; Erika Berenguer; Nicholas Berry; Lilian Blanc; Pascal Boeckx; Jan Bogaert; Damien Bonal; Frans Bongers; Matt Bradford; Francis Q. Brearley; Terry Brncic; Foster Brown; Benoit Burban; Jose Luis Camargo; Wendeson Castro; Carlos Ceron; Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro; Victor Chama Moscoso; Jerome Chave; Eric Chezeaux; Connie J. Clark; Fernanda Coelho de Souza; Murray Collins; James A. Comiskey; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; Massiel Corrales Medina; Lola da Costa; Martin Dancak; Greta C. Dargie; Stuart Davies; Nallaret Davila Cardozo; Thales de Haulleville; Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros; Jhon del Aguila Pasquel; Geraldine Derroire; Anthony Di Fiore; Jean-Louis Doucet; Aurelie Dourdain; Vincent Droissart; Luisa Fernanda Duque; Romeo Ekoungoulou; Fernando Elias; Terry Erwin; Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert; Sophie Fauset; Joice Ferreira; Gerardo Flores Llampazo; Ernest Foli; Andrew Ford; Martin Gilpin; Jefferson S. Hall; Keith C. Hamer; Alan C. Hamilton; David J. Harris; Terese B. Hart; Radim Hedl; Bruno Herault; Rafael Herrera; Niro Higuchi; Annette Hladik; Euridice Honorio Coronado; Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco; Walter Huaraca Huasco; Kathryn J. Jeffery; Eliana Jimenez-Rojas; Michelle Kalamandeen; Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo; Elizabeth Kearsley; Ricardo Keichi Umetsu; Lip Khoon Kho; Timothy Killeen; Kanehiro Kitayama; Bente Klitgaard; Alexander Koch; Nicolas Labriere; William Laurance; Susan Laurance; Miguel E. Leal; Aurora Levesley; Adriano J. N. Lima; Janvier Lisingo; Aline P. Lopes; Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez; Tom Lovejoy; Jon C. Lovett; Richard Lowe; William E. Magnusson; Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte; Angelo Gilberto Manzatto; Ben Hur Marimon; Andrew R. Marshall; Toby Marthews; Simone Matias de Almeida Reis; Colin Maycock; Karina Melgaco; Casimiro Mendoza; Faizah Metali; Vianet Mihindou; William Milliken; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Paulo S. Morandi; Hannah L. Mossman; Laszlo Nagy; Henrique Nascimento; David Neill; Reuben Nilus; Percy Nunez Vargas; Walter Palacios; Nadir Pallqui Camacho; Julie Peacock; Colin Pendry; Maria Cristina Penuela Mora; Georgia C. Pickavance; John Pipoly; Nigel Pitman; Maureen Playfair; Lourens Poorter; John R. Poulsen; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; Richard Preziosi; Adriana Prieto; Richard B. Primack; Hirma Ramirez-Angulo; Jan Reitsma; Maxime Rejou-Mechain; Zorayda Restrepo Correa; Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa; Lily Rodriguez Bayona; Anand Roopsind; Agustin Rudas; Ervan Rutishauser; Kamariah Abu Salim; Rafael P. Salomao; Juliana Schietti; Douglas Sheil; Richarlly C. Silva; Javier Silva Espejo; Camila Silva Valeria; Marcos Silveira; Murielle Simo-Droissart; Marcelo Fragomeni Simon; James Singh; Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva; Clement Stahl; Juliana Stropp; Rahayu Sukri; Terry Sunderland; Martin Svatek; Michael D. Swaine; Varun Swamy; Hermann Taedoumg; Joey Talbot; James Taplin; David Taylor; Hans ter Steege; John Terborgh; Raquel Thomas; Sean C. Thomas; Armando Torres-Lezama; Peter Umunay; Luis Valenzuela Gamarra; Geertje van der Heijden; Peter van der Hout; Peter van der Meer; Mark van Nieuwstadt; Hans Verbeeck; Ronald Vernimmen; Alberto Vicentini; Ima Celia Guimaraes Vieira; Emilio Vilanova Torre; Jason Vleminckx; Vincent Vos; Ophelia Wang; Lee J. T. White; Simon Willcock; John T. Woods; Verginia Wortel; Kenneth Young; Roderick Zagt; Lise Zemagho; Pieter A. Zuidema; Joeri A. Zwerts; Oliver L. Phillips

doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Martin J. P. Sullivan^*, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flavia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Marimon, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Lan Qie, Bonaventure Sonke, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel J. W. Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Galbraith, Manuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Shin-Ichiro AibaMiguel N. Alexiades, Everton C. Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Alvarez Davila, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E. O. C. Aragao, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric J. M. M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Ashton, Gerardo C. Aymard, Fabricio B. Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plinio Barbosa Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean-Francois Bastin, Sarah A. Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoit Burban, Jose Luis Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Ceron, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jerome Chave, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola da Costa, Martin Dancak, Greta C. Dargie, Stuart Davies, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Thales de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Geraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean-Louis Doucet, Aurelie Dourdain, Vincent Droissart, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry Erwin, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest Foli, Andrew Ford, Martin Gilpin, Jefferson S. Hall, Keith C. Hamer, Alan C. Hamilton, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Radim Hedl, Bruno Herault, Rafael Herrera, Niro Higuchi, Annette Hladik, Euridice Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Walter Huaraca Huasco, Kathryn J. Jeffery, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Michelle Kalamandeen, Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo, Elizabeth Kearsley, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Lip Khoon Kho, Timothy Killeen, Kanehiro Kitayama, Bente Klitgaard, Alexander Koch, Nicolas Labriere, William Laurance, Susan Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Adriano J. N. Lima, Janvier Lisingo, Aline P. Lopes, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Tom Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Richard Lowe, William E. Magnusson, Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte, Angelo Gilberto Manzatto, Ben Hur Marimon, Andrew R. Marshall, Toby Marthews, Simone Matias de Almeida Reis, Colin Maycock, Karina Melgaco, Casimiro Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vianet Mihindou, William Milliken, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Paulo S. Morandi, Hannah L. Mossman, Laszlo Nagy, Henrique Nascimento, David Neill, Reuben Nilus, Percy Nunez Vargas, Walter Palacios, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Julie Peacock, Colin Pendry, Maria Cristina Penuela Mora, Georgia C. Pickavance, John Pipoly, Nigel Pitman, Maureen Playfair, Lourens Poorter, John R. Poulsen, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Richard Preziosi, Adriana Prieto, Richard B. Primack, Hirma Ramirez-Angulo, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Rejou-Mechain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Anand Roopsind, Agustin Rudas, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomao, Juliana Schietti, Douglas Sheil, Richarlly C. Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Camila Silva Valeria, Marcos Silveira, Murielle Simo-Droissart, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, James Singh, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Clement Stahl, Juliana Stropp, Rahayu Sukri, Terry Sunderland, Martin Svatek, Michael D. Swaine, Varun Swamy, Hermann Taedoumg, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David Taylor, Hans ter Steege, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Sean C. Thomas, Armando Torres-Lezama, Peter Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Peter van der Meer, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Hans Verbeeck, Ronald Vernimmen, Alberto Vicentini, Ima Celia Guimaraes Vieira, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Vos, Ophelia Wang, Lee J. T. White, Simon Willcock, John T. Woods, Verginia Wortel, Kenneth Young, Roderick Zagt, Lise Zemagho, Pieter A. Zuidema, Joeri A. Zwerts, Oliver L. Phillips

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Geography & Sustainable Development

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	869-874
Journal	Science
Volume	368
Issue number	6493
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Publication status	Published - 22 May 2020

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1126/science.aaw7578

https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/handle/10871/121401

Cite this

Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., Ewango, C. E. N., Hubau, W., Marimon, B., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Qie, L., Sonke, B., Vasquez Martinez, R., Baker, T. R., Brienen, R. J. W., Feldpausch, T. R., Galbraith, D., Gloor, M., Malhi, Y., ... Phillips, O. L. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science, 368(6493), 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

@article{654aedf36dbb4354bf2ea2c6dd16b0cb,

title = "Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests",

abstract = "The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.",

author = "Sullivan, {Martin J. P.} and Lewis, {Simon L.} and Kofi Affum-Baffoe and Carolina Castilho and Flavia Costa and Sanchez, {Aida Cuni} and Ewango, {Corneille E. N.} and Wannes Hubau and Beatriz Marimon and Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza and Lan Qie and Bonaventure Sonke and {Vasquez Martinez}, Rodolfo and Baker, {Timothy R.} and Brienen, {Roel J. W.} and Feldpausch, {Ted R.} and David Galbraith and Manuel Gloor and Yadvinder Malhi and Shin-Ichiro Aiba and Alexiades, {Miguel N.} and Almeida, {Everton C.} and {de Oliveira}, {Edmar Almeida} and {Alvarez Davila}, Esteban and Loayza, {Patricia Alvarez} and Ana Andrade and Vieira, {Simone Aparecida} and Aragao, {Luiz E. O. C.} and Alejandro Araujo-Murakami and Arets, {Eric J. M. M.} and Luzmila Arroyo and Peter Ashton and Aymard, {Gerardo C.} and Baccaro, {Fabricio B.} and Banin, {Lindsay F.} and Christopher Baraloto and Camargo, {Plinio Barbosa} and Jos Barlow and Jorcely Barroso and Jean-Francois Bastin and Batterman, {Sarah A.} and Hans Beeckman and Begne, {Serge K.} and Bennett, {Amy C.} and Erika Berenguer and Nicholas Berry and Lilian Blanc and Pascal Boeckx and Jan Bogaert and Damien Bonal and Frans Bongers and Matt Bradford and Brearley, {Francis Q.} and Terry Brncic and Foster Brown and Benoit Burban and Camargo, {Jose Luis} and Wendeson Castro and Carlos Ceron and Ribeiro, {Sabina Cerruto} and Moscoso, {Victor Chama} and Jerome Chave and Eric Chezeaux and Clark, {Connie J.} and {de Souza}, {Fernanda Coelho} and Murray Collins and Comiskey, {James A.} and {Cornejo Valverde}, Fernando and {Corrales Medina}, Massiel and {da Costa}, Lola and Martin Dancak and Dargie, {Greta C.} and Stuart Davies and {Davila Cardozo}, Nallaret and {de Haulleville}, Thales and {de Medeiros}, {Marcelo Brilhante} and {del Aguila Pasquel}, Jhon and Geraldine Derroire and {Di Fiore}, Anthony and Jean-Louis Doucet and Aurelie Dourdain and Vincent Droissart and {Fernanda Duque}, Luisa and Romeo Ekoungoulou and Fernando Elias and Terry Erwin and Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert and Sophie Fauset and Joice Ferreira and {Flores Llampazo}, Gerardo and Ernest Foli and Andrew Ford and Martin Gilpin and Hall, {Jefferson S.} and Hamer, {Keith C.} and Hamilton, {Alan C.} and Harris, {David J.} and Hart, {Terese B.} and Radim Hedl and Bruno Herault and Rafael Herrera and Niro Higuchi and Annette Hladik and {Honorio Coronado}, Euridice and Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco and {Huaraca Huasco}, Walter and Jeffery, {Kathryn J.} and Eliana Jimenez-Rojas and Michelle Kalamandeen and Djuikouo, {Marie Noel Kamdem} and Elizabeth Kearsley and Umetsu, {Ricardo Keichi} and Kho, {Lip Khoon} and Timothy Killeen and Kanehiro Kitayama and Bente Klitgaard and Alexander Koch and Nicolas Labriere and William Laurance and Susan Laurance and Leal, {Miguel E.} and Aurora Levesley and Lima, {Adriano J. N.} and Janvier Lisingo and Lopes, {Aline P.} and Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez and Tom Lovejoy and Lovett, {Jon C.} and Richard Lowe and Magnusson, {William E.} and Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte and Manzatto, {Angelo Gilberto} and Marimon, {Ben Hur} and Marshall, {Andrew R.} and Toby Marthews and {de Almeida Reis}, {Simone Matias} and Colin Maycock and Karina Melgaco and Casimiro Mendoza and Faizah Metali and Vianet Mihindou and William Milliken and Mitchard, {Edward T. A.} and Morandi, {Paulo S.} and Mossman, {Hannah L.} and Laszlo Nagy and Henrique Nascimento and David Neill and Reuben Nilus and {Nunez Vargas}, Percy and Walter Palacios and Camacho, {Nadir Pallqui} and Julie Peacock and Colin Pendry and {Penuela Mora}, {Maria Cristina} and Pickavance, {Georgia C.} and John Pipoly and Nigel Pitman and Maureen Playfair and Lourens Poorter and Poulsen, {John R.} and Poulsen, {Axel Dalberg} and Richard Preziosi and Adriana Prieto and Primack, {Richard B.} and Hirma Ramirez-Angulo and Jan Reitsma and Maxime Rejou-Mechain and {Restrepo Correa}, Zorayda and {de Sousa}, {Thaiane Rodrigues} and {Rodriguez Bayona}, Lily and Anand Roopsind and Agustin Rudas and Ervan Rutishauser and {Abu Salim}, Kamariah and Salomao, {Rafael P.} and Juliana Schietti and Douglas Sheil and Silva, {Richarlly C.} and {Silva Espejo}, Javier and Valeria, {Camila Silva} and Marcos Silveira and Murielle Simo-Droissart and Simon, {Marcelo Fragomeni} and James Singh and {Soto Shareva}, {Yahn Carlos} and Clement Stahl and Juliana Stropp and Rahayu Sukri and Terry Sunderland and Martin Svatek and Swaine, {Michael D.} and Varun Swamy and Hermann Taedoumg and Joey Talbot and James Taplin and David Taylor and {ter Steege}, Hans and John Terborgh and Raquel Thomas and Thomas, {Sean C.} and Armando Torres-Lezama and Peter Umunay and {Valenzuela Gamarra}, Luis and {van der Heijden}, Geertje and {van der Hout}, Peter and {van der Meer}, Peter and {van Nieuwstadt}, Mark and Hans Verbeeck and Ronald Vernimmen and Alberto Vicentini and {Guimaraes Vieira}, {Ima Celia} and Torre, {Emilio Vilanova} and Jason Vleminckx and Vincent Vos and Ophelia Wang and White, {Lee J. T.} and Simon Willcock and Woods, {John T.} and Verginia Wortel and Kenneth Young and Roderick Zagt and Lise Zemagho and Zuidema, {Pieter A.} and Zwerts, {Joeri A.} and Phillips, {Oliver L.}",

year = "2020",

month = may,

day = "22",

doi = "10.1126/science.aaw7578",

language = "English",

volume = "368",

pages = "869--874",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6493",

}

Sullivan, MJP, Lewis, SL, Affum-Baffoe, K, Castilho, C, Costa, F, Sanchez, AC, Ewango, CEN, Hubau, W, Marimon, B, Monteagudo-Mendoza, A, Qie, L, Sonke, B, Vasquez Martinez, R, Baker, TR, Brienen, RJW, Feldpausch, TR, Galbraith, D, Gloor, M, Malhi, Y, Aiba, S-I, Alexiades, MN, Almeida, EC, de Oliveira, EA, Alvarez Davila, E, Loayza, PA, Andrade, A, Vieira, SA, Aragao, LEOC, Araujo-Murakami, A, Arets, EJMM, Arroyo, L, Ashton, P, Aymard, GC, Baccaro, FB, Banin, LF, Baraloto, C, Camargo, PB, Barlow, J, Barroso, J, Bastin, J-F, Batterman, SA, Beeckman, H, Begne, SK, Bennett, AC, Berenguer, E, Berry, N, Blanc, L, Boeckx, P, Bogaert, J, Bonal, D, Bongers, F, Bradford, M, Brearley, FQ, Brncic, T, Brown, F, Burban, B, Camargo, JL, Castro, W, Ceron, C, Ribeiro, SC, Moscoso, VC, Chave, J, Chezeaux, E, Clark, CJ, de Souza, FC, Collins, M, Comiskey, JA, Cornejo Valverde, F, Corrales Medina, M, da Costa, L, Dancak, M, Dargie, GC, Davies, S, Davila Cardozo, N, de Haulleville, T, de Medeiros, MB, del Aguila Pasquel, J, Derroire, G, Di Fiore, A, Doucet, J-L, Dourdain, A, Droissart, V, Fernanda Duque, L, Ekoungoulou, R, Elias, F, Erwin, T, Esquivel-Muelbert, A, Fauset, S, Ferreira, J, Flores Llampazo, G, Foli, E, Ford, A, Gilpin, M, Hall, JS, Hamer, KC, Hamilton, AC, Harris, DJ, Hart, TB, Hedl, R, Herault, B, Herrera, R, Higuchi, N, Hladik, A, Honorio Coronado, E, Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I, Huaraca Huasco, W, Jeffery, KJ, Jimenez-Rojas, E, Kalamandeen, M, Djuikouo, MNK, Kearsley, E, Umetsu, RK, Kho, LK, Killeen, T, Kitayama, K, Klitgaard, B, Koch, A, Labriere, N, Laurance, W, Laurance, S, Leal, ME, Levesley, A, Lima, AJN, Lisingo, J, Lopes, AP, Lopez-Gonzalez, G, Lovejoy, T, Lovett, JC, Lowe, R, Magnusson, WE, Malumbres-Olarte, J, Manzatto, AG, Marimon, BH, Marshall, AR, Marthews, T, de Almeida Reis, SM, Maycock, C, Melgaco, K, Mendoza, C, Metali, F, Mihindou, V, Milliken, W, Mitchard, ETA, Morandi, PS, Mossman, HL, Nagy, L, Nascimento, H, Neill, D, Nilus, R, Nunez Vargas, P, Palacios, W, Camacho, NP, Peacock, J, Pendry, C, Penuela Mora, MC, Pickavance, GC, Pipoly, J, Pitman, N, Playfair, M, Poorter, L, Poulsen, JR, Poulsen, AD, Preziosi, R, Prieto, A, Primack, RB, Ramirez-Angulo, H, Reitsma, J, Rejou-Mechain, M, Restrepo Correa, Z, de Sousa, TR, Rodriguez Bayona, L, Roopsind, A, Rudas, A, Rutishauser, E, Abu Salim, K, Salomao, RP, Schietti, J, Sheil, D, Silva, RC, Silva Espejo, J, Valeria, CS, Silveira, M, Simo-Droissart, M, Simon, MF, Singh, J, Soto Shareva, YC, Stahl, C, Stropp, J, Sukri, R, Sunderland, T, Svatek, M, Swaine, MD, Swamy, V, Taedoumg, H, Talbot, J, Taplin, J, Taylor, D, ter Steege, H, Terborgh, J, Thomas, R, Thomas, SC, Torres-Lezama, A, Umunay, P, Valenzuela Gamarra, L, van der Heijden, G, van der Hout, P, van der Meer, P, van Nieuwstadt, M, Verbeeck, H, Vernimmen, R, Vicentini, A, Guimaraes Vieira, IC, Torre, EV, Vleminckx, J, Vos, V, Wang, O, White, LJT, Willcock, S, Woods, JT, Wortel, V, Young, K, Zagt, R, Zemagho, L, Zuidema, PA, Zwerts, JA & Phillips, OL 2020, 'Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests', Science, vol. 368, no. 6493, pp. 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

AU - Sullivan, Martin J. P.

AU - Lewis, Simon L.

AU - Affum-Baffoe, Kofi

AU - Castilho, Carolina

AU - Costa, Flavia

AU - Sanchez, Aida Cuni

AU - Ewango, Corneille E. N.

AU - Hubau, Wannes

AU - Marimon, Beatriz

AU - Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel

AU - Qie, Lan

AU - Sonke, Bonaventure

AU - Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo

AU - Baker, Timothy R.

AU - Brienen, Roel J. W.

AU - Feldpausch, Ted R.

AU - Galbraith, David

AU - Gloor, Manuel

AU - Malhi, Yadvinder

AU - Aiba, Shin-Ichiro

AU - Alexiades, Miguel N.

AU - Almeida, Everton C.

AU - de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida

AU - Alvarez Davila, Esteban

AU - Loayza, Patricia Alvarez

AU - Andrade, Ana

AU - Vieira, Simone Aparecida

AU - Aragao, Luiz E. O. C.

AU - Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro

AU - Arets, Eric J. M. M.

AU - Arroyo, Luzmila

AU - Ashton, Peter

AU - Aymard, Gerardo C.

AU - Baccaro, Fabricio B.

AU - Banin, Lindsay F.

AU - Baraloto, Christopher

AU - Camargo, Plinio Barbosa

AU - Barlow, Jos

AU - Barroso, Jorcely

AU - Bastin, Jean-Francois

AU - Batterman, Sarah A.

AU - Beeckman, Hans

AU - Begne, Serge K.

AU - Bennett, Amy C.

AU - Berenguer, Erika

AU - Berry, Nicholas

AU - Blanc, Lilian

AU - Boeckx, Pascal

AU - Bogaert, Jan

AU - Bonal, Damien

AU - Bongers, Frans

AU - Bradford, Matt

AU - Brearley, Francis Q.

AU - Brncic, Terry

AU - Brown, Foster

AU - Burban, Benoit

AU - Camargo, Jose Luis

AU - Castro, Wendeson

AU - Ceron, Carlos

AU - Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto

AU - Moscoso, Victor Chama

AU - Chave, Jerome

AU - Chezeaux, Eric

AU - Clark, Connie J.

AU - de Souza, Fernanda Coelho

AU - Collins, Murray

AU - Comiskey, James A.

AU - Cornejo Valverde, Fernando

AU - Corrales Medina, Massiel

AU - da Costa, Lola

AU - Dancak, Martin

AU - Dargie, Greta C.

AU - Davies, Stuart

AU - Davila Cardozo, Nallaret

AU - de Haulleville, Thales

AU - de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante

AU - del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon

AU - Derroire, Geraldine

AU - Di Fiore, Anthony

AU - Doucet, Jean-Louis

AU - Dourdain, Aurelie

AU - Droissart, Vincent

AU - Fernanda Duque, Luisa

AU - Ekoungoulou, Romeo

AU - Elias, Fernando

AU - Erwin, Terry

AU - Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane

AU - Fauset, Sophie

AU - Ferreira, Joice

AU - Flores Llampazo, Gerardo

AU - Foli, Ernest

AU - Ford, Andrew

AU - Gilpin, Martin

AU - Hall, Jefferson S.

AU - Hamer, Keith C.

AU - Hamilton, Alan C.

AU - Harris, David J.

AU - Hart, Terese B.

AU - Hedl, Radim

AU - Herault, Bruno

AU - Herrera, Rafael

AU - Higuchi, Niro

AU - Hladik, Annette

AU - Honorio Coronado, Euridice

AU - Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau

AU - Huaraca Huasco, Walter

AU - Jeffery, Kathryn J.

AU - Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana

AU - Kalamandeen, Michelle

AU - Djuikouo, Marie Noel Kamdem

AU - Kearsley, Elizabeth

AU - Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi

AU - Kho, Lip Khoon

AU - Killeen, Timothy

AU - Kitayama, Kanehiro

AU - Klitgaard, Bente

AU - Koch, Alexander

AU - Labriere, Nicolas

AU - Laurance, William

AU - Laurance, Susan

AU - Leal, Miguel E.

AU - Levesley, Aurora

AU - Lima, Adriano J. N.

AU - Lisingo, Janvier

AU - Lopes, Aline P.

AU - Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela

AU - Lovejoy, Tom

AU - Lovett, Jon C.

AU - Lowe, Richard

AU - Magnusson, William E.

AU - Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba

AU - Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto

AU - Marimon, Ben Hur

AU - Marshall, Andrew R.

AU - Marthews, Toby

AU - de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias

AU - Maycock, Colin

AU - Melgaco, Karina

AU - Mendoza, Casimiro

AU - Metali, Faizah

AU - Mihindou, Vianet

AU - Milliken, William

AU - Mitchard, Edward T. A.

AU - Morandi, Paulo S.

AU - Mossman, Hannah L.

AU - Nagy, Laszlo

AU - Nascimento, Henrique

AU - Neill, David

AU - Nilus, Reuben

AU - Nunez Vargas, Percy

AU - Palacios, Walter

AU - Camacho, Nadir Pallqui

AU - Peacock, Julie

AU - Pendry, Colin

AU - Penuela Mora, Maria Cristina

AU - Pickavance, Georgia C.

AU - Pipoly, John

AU - Pitman, Nigel

AU - Playfair, Maureen

AU - Poorter, Lourens

AU - Poulsen, John R.

AU - Poulsen, Axel Dalberg

AU - Preziosi, Richard

AU - Prieto, Adriana

AU - Primack, Richard B.

AU - Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma

AU - Reitsma, Jan

AU - Rejou-Mechain, Maxime

AU - Restrepo Correa, Zorayda

AU - de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues

AU - Rodriguez Bayona, Lily

AU - Roopsind, Anand

AU - Rudas, Agustin

AU - Rutishauser, Ervan

AU - Abu Salim, Kamariah

AU - Salomao, Rafael P.

AU - Schietti, Juliana

AU - Sheil, Douglas

AU - Silva, Richarlly C.

AU - Silva Espejo, Javier

AU - Valeria, Camila Silva

AU - Silveira, Marcos

AU - Simo-Droissart, Murielle

AU - Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni

AU - Singh, James

AU - Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos

AU - Stahl, Clement

AU - Stropp, Juliana

AU - Sukri, Rahayu

AU - Sunderland, Terry

AU - Svatek, Martin

AU - Swaine, Michael D.

AU - Swamy, Varun

AU - Taedoumg, Hermann

AU - Talbot, Joey

AU - Taplin, James

AU - Taylor, David

AU - ter Steege, Hans

AU - Terborgh, John

AU - Thomas, Raquel

AU - Thomas, Sean C.

AU - Torres-Lezama, Armando

AU - Umunay, Peter

AU - Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis

AU - van der Heijden, Geertje

AU - van der Hout, Peter

AU - van der Meer, Peter

AU - van Nieuwstadt, Mark

AU - Verbeeck, Hans

AU - Vernimmen, Ronald

AU - Vicentini, Alberto

AU - Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia

AU - Torre, Emilio Vilanova

AU - Vleminckx, Jason

AU - Vos, Vincent

AU - Wang, Ophelia

AU - White, Lee J. T.

AU - Willcock, Simon

AU - Woods, John T.

AU - Wortel, Verginia

AU - Young, Kenneth

AU - Zagt, Roderick

AU - Zemagho, Lise

AU - Zuidema, Pieter A.

AU - Zwerts, Joeri A.

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

PY - 2020/5/22

Y1 - 2020/5/22

N2 - The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

AB - The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

U2 - 10.1126/science.aaw7578

DO - 10.1126/science.aaw7578

M3 - Article

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 368

SP - 869

EP - 874

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6493

ER -

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Abstract

UN SDGs

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