Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

Sebastian Till Braun; Anica Kramer; Michael Kvasnicka

Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

Sebastian Till Braun
, Anica Kramer
, Michael Kvasnicka

Research output: Working paper › Discussion paper

Abstract

This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

Original language	English
Place of Publication	St Andrews
Publisher	University of St Andrews
Number of pages	27
Publication status	Published - 30 Sept 2017

Publication series

Name	School of Economics and Finance Discussion Paper
Publisher	University of St Andrews
No.	1715
ISSN (Print)	0962-4031
ISSN (Electronic)	2055-303X

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 15 Life on Land

Keywords

Population shock
Locational fundamentals
Agglomeration economies
Regional migration
Post-war Germany

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title = "Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks",

abstract = "This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.",

keywords = "Population shock, Locational fundamentals, Agglomeration economies, Regional migration, Post-war Germany",

author = "Braun, \{Sebastian Till\} and Anica Kramer and Michael Kvasnicka",

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AU - Braun, Sebastian Till

AU - Kramer, Anica

AU - Kvasnicka, Michael

N1 - The research in this paper was funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (grant no. BR 4979/1-1, “Die volkswirtschaftlichen Effekte der Vertriebenen und ihre Integration in Westdeutschland, 1945-70”).

PY - 2017/9/30

Y1 - 2017/9/30

N2 - This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

AB - This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

KW - Population shock

KW - Locational fundamentals

KW - Agglomeration economies

KW - Regional migration

KW - Post-war Germany

UR - https://ideas.repec.org/p/san/wpecon/1715.html

M3 - Discussion paper

T3 - School of Economics and Finance Discussion Paper

BT - Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

PB - University of St Andrews

CY - St Andrews

ER -

Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

Abstract

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UN SDGs

Keywords

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