Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

Sebastian Till Braun; Anica Kramer; Michael Kvasnicka

Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

Sebastian Till Braun, Anica Kramer, Michael Kvasnicka

Research output: Working paper › Discussion paper

Abstract

This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

Original language	English
Place of Publication	St Andrews
Publisher	University of St Andrews
Number of pages	27
Publication status	Published - 30 Sept 2017

Publication series

Name	School of Economics and Finance Discussion Paper
Publisher	University of St Andrews
No.	1715
ISSN (Print)	0962-4031
ISSN (Electronic)	2055-303X

Keywords

Population shock
Locational fundamentals
Agglomeration economies
Regional migration
Post-war Germany

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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abstract = "This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.",

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N2 - This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

AB - This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

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Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks

Abstract

Publication series

Keywords

UN SDGs

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