Abstract
Social-ecological interactions mediate water–energy–food security in
small developing islands, but community-scale insights are
underrepresented in nexus research. These interactions are dynamic in
their response to environmental and anthropogenic pressures and need to
be understood to inform sustainable land use planning into the future.
This study centered on bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore
water–energy–food futures using the “Kesho”
(meaning “tomorrow” in Kiswahili) scenario tool for two of the largest
islands that comprise the Zanzibar Archipelago. The methodology
comprised four core stages: (1) exploration of how past drivers of
change impacted water–energy–food security; (2) modeling of a Business as Usual Scenario
for land cover change; (3) narrative development to describe
alternative futures for 2030 based on themes developed at the community
scale; and (4) predictions about how narratives would shape land cover
and its implications for the nexus. These results were used to model
alternate land cover scenarios in TerrSet IDRISI (v. 18.31) and produce
visual representations of expected change. Findings demonstrated that
deforestation, saltwater incursion, and a reduction in permanent
waterbodies were projected by 2030 in a Business as Usual Scenario. Three alternative scenario narratives were developed, these included Adaptation, Ecosystem Management, and Settlement Planning.
The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of actions under the
scenario options differ between the islands, indicating the importance
of understanding the suitability of national policies across considered
scales. Synergies across the alternative scenario narratives also
emerged, including integrated approaches for managing environmental
change, community participation in decision making, effective protection
of forests, cultural sensitivity to settlement planning, and poverty
alleviation. These synergies could be used to plan strategic action
towards effectively strengthening water–energy–food security in
Zanzibar.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 195 |
Number of pages | 26 |
Journal | Land |
Volume | 13 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 5 Feb 2024 |
Keywords
- Livelihoods
- Nexu
- Climate change
- Development
- Ecosystems
- Western Indian Ocean