TY - JOUR
T1 - Hidden process models for animal population dynamics
AU - Newman, Kenneth Brian
AU - Buckland, Stephen Terrence
AU - Lindley, ST
AU - Thomas, Len
AU - Fernández, C
N1 - mf3 16/12/09 changed from unclassified to jnl article
PY - 2006/2
Y1 - 2006/2
N2 - Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).
AB - Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).
KW - endangered species
KW - kernel smoothing
KW - sequential importance sampling
KW - state-space models
KW - PARAMETER
KW - SIMULATION
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33645103546&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.esajournals.org/esaonline/?request=get-abstract&issn=1051-0761&volume=016&issue=01&page=0074
U2 - 10.1890/04-0592
DO - 10.1890/04-0592
M3 - Article
SN - 1051-0761
VL - 16
SP - 74
EP - 86
JO - Ecological Applications
JF - Ecological Applications
IS - 1
ER -