Fragility, antifragility and war in Nigeria: contemporary security implications of Nigeria's Civil War (1967-1970) for the Nigerian Army

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Abstract

Focusing on Biafra’s calculus of war to shed new light on the rebel-side debate, this article revisits the Civil War of Nigeria (1967–1970) to extract campaign lessons for the Nigerian Army (NA) in its fight against Boko Haram (BH). The paper uses Nassim Taleb’s ‘antifragility’ theory to explain why Biafra rebels crumbled under traditional military campaign stressors imposed on them. By contrast, Boko Haram’s ‘antifragile’ threat has grown, even as campaign stressors imposed by the NA increased. Embracing the differences in operational environment within both conflicts, this article reflects on the implications of BH’s antifragility for the NA’s counter-insurgency (COIN).
Original languageEnglish
JournalCivil Wars
Volume23
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2021

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