Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Euro Area consolidation

Sebastian Gechert, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Ansgar Rannenberg

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    11 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We estimate the impact of the fiscal consolidation actions in the Euro Area between 2011 and 2013 on output and public finances. We identify the discretionary fiscal consolidation effort based on new data by the European Commission. We combine these data with robust estimates from a rich meta-regression analysis on multipliers for various fiscal measures under different business cycle regimes. The frontloaded consolidation came at a considerable cost with an output loss of 7.7% and only a small gain to the primary balance of 0.2% of GDP. Backloading would have been much less costly due to lower multipliers.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1138-1140
    Number of pages3
    JournalApplied Economics Letters
    Volume23
    Issue number16
    Early online date2 Feb 2016
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Keywords

    • Fiscal policy
    • Fiscal multipliers
    • Fiscal consolidation
    • Euro Area
    • E27
    • E62
    • H30

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