Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

Tomas Frejka; Stuart Gietel-Basten; Liga Abolina; Liili Abuladze; Svitlina Aksyonova; AnĎelko Akrap; Ekaterina Antipova; Mirjana Bobic; Ivan Čipin; Liudmila Fakeyeva; Ionut Foldes; Aiva Jasilioniene; Dora Kostova; Irena Kotowska; Boris Krimer; Elena von der Lippe; Iryna Kurylo; Ausra Maslauskaite; Julia Mikolai; Cornelia Muresan; Vasic Petar; Michaela Potančoková; Tatyana Pronko; Allan Puur; Mirjana Rasevic; Anna Rybińska; Luule Sakkeus; Jože Sambt; Tomáš Sobotka; Branislav Šprocha; Rebecca Staddon; Vlada Stankuniene; Anna Štastná; Marin Strmota; Nada Stropnik; Krzysztof Tymicki; Anatoly Vishnevsky; Sergei Zakharov; Kryštof Zeman; Peteris Zvidrins

doi:10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en

Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

Tomas Frejka^*, Stuart Gietel-Basten, Liga Abolina, Liili Abuladze, Svitlina Aksyonova, AnĎelko Akrap, Ekaterina Antipova, Mirjana Bobic, Ivan Čipin, Liudmila Fakeyeva, Ionut Foldes, Aiva Jasilioniene, Dora Kostova, Irena Kotowska, Boris Krimer, Elena von der Lippe, Iryna Kurylo, Ausra Maslauskaite, Julia Mikolai, Cornelia MuresanVasic Petar, Michaela Potančoková, Tatyana Pronko, Allan Puur, Mirjana Rasevic, Anna Rybińska, Luule Sakkeus, Jože Sambt, Tomáš Sobotka, Branislav Šprocha, Rebecca Staddon, Vlada Stankuniene, Anna Štastná, Marin Strmota, Nada Stropnik, Krzysztof Tymicki, Anatoly Vishnevsky, Sergei Zakharov, Kryštof Zeman, Peteris Zvidrins

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3-56
Number of pages	54
Journal	Comparative Population Studies
Volume	41
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en
Publication status	Published - 23 May 2016

Keywords

Central and eastern Europe
Family policies
Family policy typology
Fertility
International comparative analysis

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Frejka_2016_Fertility_CPS_3
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Frejka, T., Gietel-Basten, S., Abolina, L., Abuladze, L., Aksyonova, S., Akrap, A., Antipova, E., Bobic, M., Čipin, I., Fakeyeva, L., Foldes, I., Jasilioniene, A., Kostova, D., Kotowska, I., Krimer, B., von der Lippe, E., Kurylo, I., Maslauskaite, A., Mikolai, J., ... Zvidrins, P. (2016). Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990. Comparative Population Studies, 41(1), 3-56. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en

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abstract = "This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs.",

keywords = "Central and eastern Europe, Family policies, Family policy typology, Fertility, International comparative analysis",

author = "Tomas Frejka and Stuart Gietel-Basten and Liga Abolina and Liili Abuladze and Svitlina Aksyonova and An{\v D}elko Akrap and Ekaterina Antipova and Mirjana Bobic and Ivan {\v C}ipin and Liudmila Fakeyeva and Ionut Foldes and Aiva Jasilioniene and Dora Kostova and Irena Kotowska and Boris Krimer and {von der Lippe}, Elena and Iryna Kurylo and Ausra Maslauskaite and Julia Mikolai and Cornelia Muresan and Vasic Petar and Michaela Potan{\v c}okov{\'a} and Tatyana Pronko and Allan Puur and Mirjana Rasevic and Anna Rybi{\'n}ska and Luule Sakkeus and Jo{\v z}e Sambt and Tom{\'a}{\v s} Sobotka and Branislav {\v S}procha and Rebecca Staddon and Vlada Stankuniene and Anna {\v S}tastn{\'a} and Marin Strmota and Nada Stropnik and Krzysztof Tymicki and Anatoly Vishnevsky and Sergei Zakharov and Kry{\v s}tof Zeman and Peteris Zvidrins",

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month = may,

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doi = "10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en",

language = "English",

volume = "41",

pages = "3--56",

journal = "Comparative Population Studies",

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publisher = "Federal Institute for Population Research (Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, BiB)",

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Frejka, T, Gietel-Basten, S, Abolina, L, Abuladze, L, Aksyonova, S, Akrap, A, Antipova, E, Bobic, M, Čipin, I, Fakeyeva, L, Foldes, I, Jasilioniene, A, Kostova, D, Kotowska, I, Krimer, B, von der Lippe, E, Kurylo, I, Maslauskaite, A, Mikolai, J, Muresan, C, Petar, V, Potančoková, M, Pronko, T, Puur, A, Rasevic, M, Rybińska, A, Sakkeus, L, Sambt, J, Sobotka, T, Šprocha, B, Staddon, R, Stankuniene, V, Štastná, A, Strmota, M, Stropnik, N, Tymicki, K, Vishnevsky, A, Zakharov, S, Zeman, K & Zvidrins, P 2016, 'Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990', Comparative Population Studies, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 3-56. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en

TY - JOUR

T1 - Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

AU - Frejka, Tomas

AU - Gietel-Basten, Stuart

AU - Abolina, Liga

AU - Abuladze, Liili

AU - Aksyonova, Svitlina

AU - Akrap, AnĎelko

AU - Antipova, Ekaterina

AU - Bobic, Mirjana

AU - Čipin, Ivan

AU - Fakeyeva, Liudmila

AU - Foldes, Ionut

AU - Jasilioniene, Aiva

AU - Kostova, Dora

AU - Kotowska, Irena

AU - Krimer, Boris

AU - von der Lippe, Elena

AU - Kurylo, Iryna

AU - Maslauskaite, Ausra

AU - Mikolai, Julia

AU - Muresan, Cornelia

AU - Petar, Vasic

AU - Potančoková, Michaela

AU - Pronko, Tatyana

AU - Puur, Allan

AU - Rasevic, Mirjana

AU - Rybińska, Anna

AU - Sakkeus, Luule

AU - Sambt, Jože

AU - Sobotka, Tomáš

AU - Šprocha, Branislav

AU - Staddon, Rebecca

AU - Stankuniene, Vlada

AU - Štastná, Anna

AU - Strmota, Marin

AU - Stropnik, Nada

AU - Tymicki, Krzysztof

AU - Vishnevsky, Anatoly

AU - Zakharov, Sergei

AU - Zeman, Kryštof

AU - Zvidrins, Peteris

PY - 2016/5/23

Y1 - 2016/5/23

N2 - This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs.

AB - This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs.

KW - Central and eastern Europe

KW - Family policies

KW - Family policy typology

KW - Fertility

KW - International comparative analysis

U2 - 10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en

DO - 10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84978387801

SN - 1869-8980

VL - 41

SP - 3

EP - 56

JO - Comparative Population Studies

JF - Comparative Population Studies

IS - 1

ER -

Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

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Keywords

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