Faster inference from state space models via GPU computing

Inexpensive Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) offer the potential to greatly speed up computation by employing their massively parallel architecture to perform arithmetic operations more efficiently. Population dynamics models are important tools in ecology and conservation. Modern Bayesian approaches allow biologically realistic models to be constructed and fitted to multiple data sources in an integrated modelling framework based on a class of statistical models called state space models. However, model fitting is often slow, requiring hours to weeks of computation. We demonstrate the benefits of GPU computing using a model for the population dynamics of British grey seals, fitted with a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Speed-ups of two orders of magnitude were obtained for estimations of the log-likelihood, compared to a traditional ‘CPU-only’ implementation, allowing for an accurate method of inference to be used where this was previously too computationally expensive to be viable. GPU computing has enormous potential, but one barrier to further adoption is a steep learning curve, due to GPUs' unique hardware architecture. We provide a detailed description of hardware and software setup, and our case study provides a template for other similar applications. We also provide a detailed tutorial-style description of GPU hardware architectures, and examples of important GPU-specific programming practices.