Family formation and residential mobility: how do fertility and mobility intentions influence residential mobility?

In this study, we examine the association between fertility and mobility intentions, and residential mobility. Existing literature suggests a link between family formation and residential moves. However, these studies have not explored the interaction between fertility intentions and mobility intentions, or how they interact with micro-level, individual factors such as current family size and housing context, or temporal effects that can serve as proxies for macro-level contextual factors, such as changes in the housing market or economy. Utilising harmonised data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Survey, and employing event history analysis techniques, we investigate the interaction between the two life course domains of fertility and residential mobility. We consider not only how jointly held intentions influence the likelihood of a residential relocation, but also how the influence of these intentions varies across population subgroups and over time, particularly focusing on the effect of the 2008 financial crisis. We find that intending to have a(nother) child does increase the likelihood of a residential move; however, this association varies based on individual-level characteristics and contextual factors. Intentions to have a child in the future are only positively associated with residential mobility for women intending a higher-order birth and those who are married. Moreover, the positive association between fertility intentions and residential moves for mothers was observed only prior to the 2008 financial crisis. The financial crisis also affected the relationship between mobility intentions and the likelihood of a move, with individuals less likely to realise their mobility intentions following the financial crash and subsequent recession. This temporal effect suggests that people may be more limited in their ability to fulfil their mobility intentions under challenging economic conditions and unfavourable housing markets.