Evaluating the prospects for US–Southeast Asia relations under the second Trump administration

Ralf Emmers; Catherine Michele Jones

doi:10.1525/as.2025.2700690

Evaluating the prospects for US–Southeast Asia relations under the second Trump administration

Ralf Emmers^*, Catherine Michele Jones^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of International Relations

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

What are the prospects for the relationship between Trump 2.0 and Southeast Asia? The ties between the US and this region have been inconsistent, with periods of intense engagement but also moments of US distraction or preoccupation with other regions and issues. Given this historical context and the current challenges of discerning a clear strategy toward the region, this article evaluates the possible approach of Trump 2.0 toward Southeast Asia through a series of scenarios: maintenance of the status quo, increased competition, and retrenchment (either by accommodation or by withdrawal). The three scenarios are explored through foreign policy approaches and multilateral platforms, as well as through the South China Sea dispute. We argue that the status quo scenario is the most plausible, but that increased competition is also likely.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-26
Number of pages	26
Journal	Asian Survey
Volume	65
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2025.2700690
Publication status	Published - 2 Jul 2025

Keywords

United States
Southeast Asia
Bilateralism
Multilateralism
South China Sea

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10.1525/as.2025.2700690

Emmers-Jones-2025-Evaluating-the-prospects-AsianSurv-AAM-CCBY
Copyright © 2025 the Authors. This work has been made available online in accordance with the University of St Andrews Open Access policy. This accepted manuscript is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2025.2700690.
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Cite this

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abstract = "What are the prospects for the relationship between Trump 2.0 and Southeast Asia? The ties between the US and this region have been inconsistent, with periods of intense engagement but also moments of US distraction or preoccupation with other regions and issues. Given this historical context and the current challenges of discerning a clear strategy toward the region, this article evaluates the possible approach of Trump 2.0 toward Southeast Asia through a series of scenarios: maintenance of the status quo, increased competition, and retrenchment (either by accommodation or by withdrawal). The three scenarios are explored through foreign policy approaches and multilateral platforms, as well as through the South China Sea dispute. We argue that the status quo scenario is the most plausible, but that increased competition is also likely.",

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KW - Bilateralism

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KW - South China Sea

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Evaluating the prospects for US–Southeast Asia relations under the second Trump administration

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Keywords

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