Ethnically disparate disease progression and outcomes among acute rheumatic fever patients in New Zealand, 1989-2015

We investigated outcomes for patients born after 1983 and hospitalized with initial acute rheumatic fever (ARF) in New Zealand during 1989-2012. We linked ARF progression outcome data (recurrent hospitalization for ARF, hospitalization for rheumatic heart disease [RHD], and death from circulatory causes) for 1989-2015. Retrospective analysis identified initial RHD patients <40 years of age who were hospitalized during 2010-2015 and previously hospitalized for ARF. Most (86.4%) of the 2,182 initial ARF patients did not experience disease progression by the end of 2015. Progression probability after 26.8 years of theoretical follow-up was 24.0%; probability of death, 1.0%. Progression was more rapid and ≈2 times more likely for indigenous Māori or Pacific Islander patients. Of 435 initial RHD patients, 82.2% had not been previously hospitalized for ARF. This young cohort demonstrated low mortality rates but considerable illness, especially among underserved populations. A national patient register could help monitor, prevent, and reduce ARF progression.