Does the sequence matter: interest rates, quantitative easing or forward guidance?

Tudor Schlanger, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick*, Joel Wagner, Yang Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We study the role of unconventional monetary policies during a pandemic, focusing on the implementation sequencing of policies when there is a social containment period. Using the Bank of Canada's main projection model (ToTEM), we compare the efficacy of a suite of extended monetary policies (EMPs), finding that the immediate implementation of forward guidance and quantitative easing, followed by credit easing when containment measures are lifted delivers the best outcome. We also quantify the fiscal response needed to offset the gap in gross domestic product created by the effective lower bound, given operational limitations in scaling up EMPs.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages46
JournalInternational Journal of Central Banking
Volume22
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2026

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Pandemic
  • Monetary policy
  • Monetary policy sequencing
  • Quantitative easing
  • Credit easing

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