Designing a climate change resilient landscape connectivity network from a multi-species perspective

There is strong evidence that climate change causes species range shifts and declines. Protected areas and suitable habitats are important for maintaining biodiversity. Species range changes depend on landscape connectivity between areas, facilitating movement and colonisation. Conservationists should identify landscape connectivity, as climate change causes species to move at different points in time. We quantified national connectivity for England for a sample of nationally important taxa associated with limestone and upland habitats, reflecting the White Peak as example focal region. We generated England-wide species distribution models for 15 species for three climate change time scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 245): current, 2050 and 2090. We inverted these models, applying circuit theory analysis, to create connectivity maps. We applied -score standardisation to compare differences between scenarios. We considered the top decile of connectivity occurring across the time periods as the 'landscape connectivity network'. We compared this with the National Character Area framework of land parcels, the Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) map, and quantified landcover in the network. The landscape connectivity network showed future species requirements becoming more diffuse, i.e., the landscape becoming more permeable. High connectivity value land lay in South West or South East England, and the central Pennines; implying range shifts to diverging latitudes. The network measured 1,029,000 ha, with 13% inside SSSIs. In the White Peak focal example, there were 7600 ha, with 38% inside SSSIs. Across England, the network's landcover included broadleaved woodland (365,000 ha), calcareous grassland (55,000 ha), and improved grassland (305,000 ha), the latter thought to be of low biodiversity value. This research innovates by combining connectivity assessments for widely different taxa associated with one habitat type for three climate change time scenarios. It shows how connectivity tends to be concentrated in certain areas of England, thereby identifying important national and regional connectivity areas to support species conservation planning.