Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

James Cant; James D. Reimer; Brigitte Sommer; Katie M. Cook; Sun W. Kim; Carrie A. Sims; Takuma Mezaki; Cliodhna O'Flaherty; Maxime Brooks; Hamish A. Malcolm; John M. Pandolfi; Roberto Salguero-Gómez; Maria Beger

doi:10.1002/ecy.4138

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

James Cant^*, James D. Reimer, Brigitte Sommer, Katie M. Cook, Sun W. Kim, Carrie A. Sims, Takuma Mezaki, Cliodhna O'Flaherty, Maxime Brooks, Hamish A. Malcolm, John M. Pandolfi, Roberto Salguero-Gómez, Maria Beger

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Biology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

Original language	English
Article number	e4138
Number of pages	16
Journal	Ecology
Volume	104
Issue number	9
Early online date	30 Jul 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4138
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2023

Keywords

Amplification
Demography
Integral projection model (IPM)
Resilience
Subtropical
Transient dynamics

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10.1002/ecy.4138Licence: CC BY

Cant_2023_Ecology_Coral-assemblages_CC
Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Final published version, 1.25 MBLicence: CC BY

CantJ/Corals-at-higher-latitudes: Coral resilience at higher latitudes
Cant, J. (Creator), Zenodo, 2023
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8059229
Dataset: Software
Colony-level coral demographic data from Japan & Australia (2016-2019)
Cant, J. (Creator), Reimer, J. (Creator), Sommer, B. (Creator), Cook, K. (Creator), Kim, S. (Creator), Sims, C. (Creator), Mezaki, T. (Creator), O'Flaherty, C. (Creator), Brooks, M. (Creator), Malcolm, H. (Creator), Pandolfi, J. (Creator), Salguero-Gómez, R. (Creator) & Beger, M. (Creator), Zenodo, 2023
DOI: 10.5061/dryad.w0vt4b8xd, https://zenodo.org/record/8072718
Dataset

Cite this

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title = "Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance",

abstract = "The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.",

keywords = "Amplification, Demography, Integral projection model (IPM), Resilience, Subtropical, Transient dynamics",

author = "James Cant and Reimer, {James D.} and Brigitte Sommer and Cook, {Katie M.} and Kim, {Sun W.} and Sims, {Carrie A.} and Takuma Mezaki and Cliodhna O'Flaherty and Maxime Brooks and Malcolm, {Hamish A.} and Pandolfi, {John M.} and Roberto Salguero-G{\'o}mez and Maria Beger",

note = "Funding: Funding for this research was provided by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Doctoral Training Programme Scholarship to JC, a Royal Geographical Society Ralph Brown Expedition Award (RBEA 03/19) to MB and JC, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CE140100020) to JMP and others, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE110001014), a British Ecological Society small grant, the Winifred Violet Scott Charitable Trust, and the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sk{\l}odowska-Curie grant agreement TRIM-DLV-747102 to MB. BS was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early CareerResearch Award (DE230100141), a University of Sydney Fellowship and a Chancellor{\textquoteright}s Postdoctoral Research Fellowship from the University of Technology Sydney.",

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AU - Cant, James

AU - Reimer, James D.

AU - Sommer, Brigitte

AU - Cook, Katie M.

AU - Kim, Sun W.

AU - Sims, Carrie A.

AU - Mezaki, Takuma

AU - O'Flaherty, Cliodhna

AU - Brooks, Maxime

AU - Malcolm, Hamish A.

AU - Pandolfi, John M.

AU - Salguero-Gómez, Roberto

AU - Beger, Maria

N1 - Funding: Funding for this research was provided by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Doctoral Training Programme Scholarship to JC, a Royal Geographical Society Ralph Brown Expedition Award (RBEA 03/19) to MB and JC, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CE140100020) to JMP and others, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE110001014), a British Ecological Society small grant, the Winifred Violet Scott Charitable Trust, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement TRIM-DLV-747102 to MB. BS was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early CareerResearch Award (DE230100141), a University of Sydney Fellowship and a Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research Fellowship from the University of Technology Sydney.

PY - 2023/9/1

Y1 - 2023/9/1

N2 - The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

AB - The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

KW - Amplification

KW - Demography

KW - Integral projection model (IPM)

KW - Resilience

KW - Subtropical

KW - Transient dynamics

U2 - 10.1002/ecy.4138

DO - 10.1002/ecy.4138

M3 - Article

SN - 0012-9658

VL - 104

JO - Ecology

JF - Ecology

IS - 9

M1 - e4138

ER -

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

Abstract

Keywords

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Datasets

CantJ/Corals-at-higher-latitudes: Coral resilience at higher latitudes

Colony-level coral demographic data from Japan &amp; Australia (2016-2019)

Cite this

Colony-level coral demographic data from Japan & Australia (2016-2019)