Abstract
Climate models robustly and unanimously simulate narrowing of the intense tropical precipitation under greenhouse gas forcing. We argue that the meridional width of tropical precipitation is controlled by the seasonal meridional range of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The contraction of tropical precipitation under greenhouse forcing results from a reduced seasonal range of ITCZ migration. An energetic theory -- similar to the energetic theory for ITCZ shifts based on the hemispheric contrast of energy input to the atmosphere-- is developed. The meridional width of tropical precipitation is proportional to the seasonal range of the inter-hemispheric contrast in atmospheric heating divided by the efficiency of atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport. Climate models are biased toward overly expansive tropical precipitation resulting from an exaggerated seasonal atmospheric heating. The robust contraction of tropical precipitation under global warming results from increased efficiency of inter-hemispheric energy transport consistent with enhanced gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | Early View |
| Early online date | 29 Aug 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 29 Aug 2019 |
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Copyright © 2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the final published version of the work, which was originally published at https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082969