Continuity in the face of a slowly unfolding catastrophe: the persistence of Icelandic settlement despite large-scale soil erosion

Soil erosion in Iceland since people first settled the island about 1,100 years ago has fundamentally changed some 15-30% of the island’s total surface area. This provides a unique case to evaluate the consequences of a slowly unfolding environmental catastrophe that has affected, and is continuing to affect a primary means of subsistence for a whole society. Buffered by the sufferings of regions of Iceland, individual farms and particular social groups, Icelandic society as a whole has endured through subsistence flexibility, social inequalities, and the ability to tap into larger provisioning and economic networks. This demonstrates how an adaptable people can confront challenges through social organisation and by diversifying their impacts ecosystems. In the medium term—multi-century timescales—this can be an effective, if costly, strategy, in terms of both the environment and society. Soil conservation is now a national priority, woodland is returning, and climate warming is opening up more potentials for Icelandic arable agriculture. However, the slow catastrophe of Icelandic soil erosion is still unfolding, with the perspective of the longue durée it is evident that decisions made in the Viking Age and medieval period still resonate, constraining future options for resilience and adaptive flexibility.