TY - JOUR
T1 - Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
AU - Swallow, Ben
AU - Birrell, Paul
AU - Blake, Joshua
AU - Burgman, Mark
AU - Challenor, Peter
AU - Coffeng, Luc E
AU - Dawid, Philip
AU - De Angelis, Daniela
AU - Goldstein, Michael
AU - Hemming, Victoria
AU - Marion, Glenn
AU - McKinley, Trevelyan J
AU - Overton, Christopher E
AU - Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
AU - Pellis, Lorenzo
AU - Probert, Will
AU - Shea, Katriona
AU - Villela, Daniel
AU - Vernon, Ian
N1 - DDA, JB and PB are funded by MRC (Unit Programme number MC/UU/00002/11); DDA is also supported by the NIHR Health Protection Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation. JPG's work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care.
PY - 2022/3
Y1 - 2022/3
N2 - The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
AB - The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
KW - Forecasting
KW - Pandemics
KW - Uncertainty
U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
M3 - Article
C2 - 35180542
SN - 1878-0067
VL - 38
JO - Epidemics
JF - Epidemics
M1 - 100547
ER -