Autonomy or decline: Europe’s future in a brave new Trumpian world

In this paper, I argue that Europe has reached a historic turning point in its relationship with the United States. Under a second Trump presidency, the transatlantic alliance as traditionally understood can no longer be taken for granted—let alone relied upon. Episodes such as threats over Greenland, trade coercion, and attacks on NATO and multilateral institutions reveal a United States that is no longer a dependable ally and, in some domains, may even become a strategic adversary.

Europe’s long-standing strategy of appeasement has failed. The central choice now is stark: continued dependence, with growing vulnerability, or a deliberate push toward strategic autonomy. I outline what this means in practice—ending wishful thinking, setting and enforcing red lines, leveraging Europe’s market power, reducing critical dependencies (especially in defence and technology), preparing for a post‑NATO security environment, and working more closely with like‑minded partners.