Annual review of priors for grey seal population model 2021: SCOS briefing paper 21/04

Prior distributions (Table 1) for the grey seal population model (SCOS-BP 21/05) are required for the following model parameters: adult female survival , maximum pup survival , fecundity , shape of density dependence acting on pup survival , region-specific carrying capacity (in terms of pup production) , number of adults per female , and precision of the pup production estimates . The data used to inform these priors are presented below and in Tables 2 and 3. The resulting prior distributions are shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. These distributions are identical to -BP 21/05). Further discussion of previous and current prior selection is given in Lonergan (2012; 2014), and Russell (2017). Recent data, and any implications for the current priors, are highlighted. For study sites for which there are multiple estimates for a parameter, only the most comprehensive study is presented. This briefing paper is based on Supporting Information in Thomas et al. (2019).