Annual review of priors for grey seal population model 2018: Special Committee on Seals (SCOS) Briefing Paper (SCOS-BP 18/02)

Prior distributions (Table 1) for the grey seal population model (Thomas 2018) are required for the
following model parameters: adult female survival , maximum pup survival , fecundity ,
shape of density dependence acting on pup survival , region-specific carrying capacity (in terms of
pup production) , number of adults per female , and precision of the pup production
estimates . The data used to inform these priors are presented below and in Tables 2 and 3. The
resulting prior distributions, which have been used since 2016 (Thomas, 2016), are shown in Figure 1
and Table 1. Further discussion of previous and current prior selection is given in Lonergan (2012;
2014), and Russell (2017). Recent data, and any implications for the current priors, are highlighted.
For study sites for which there are multiple estimates for a parameter, only the most comprehensive
study is presented. This briefing paper is based on Supporting Information in Thomas et al.
(Submitted).