A sustained decline in Cyprus Warbler Sylvia melanothorax numbers in western Cyprus, coinciding with the colonisation of its breeding range by the Sardinian Warbler S. melanocephala

During 1998–2011, in an area of western Cyprus spanning about one-quarter of the global breeding range of the endemic Cyprus Warbler Sylvia melanothorax, the species declined at a rate of c.59% decade-1, suggesting that there is an urgent need to review its global conservation status. This decline has coincided with the recent, rapid colonisation of western Cyprus by the Sardinian Warbler S. melanocephala, whose numbers have increased substantially within the study area, as might be expected of a newly colonising breeding species. To identify possible causes of the Cyprus Warbler’s decline we compared its rate of change with measures of land-cover, vegetation density, altitude, rainfall and the presence of Sardinian Warblers at survey sites. The rate of decline in the Cyprus Warbler’s abundance was strongly correlated with land-cover and with the duration of site occupancy by Sardinian Warbler; Cyprus Warbler abundance had declined more steeply on sites colonised by Sardinian Warblers early in the survey period than on sites colonised later. Furthermore, on sites surveyed by BirdLife Cyprus in 2006–2014, Cyprus Warbler abundance had continued to decline significantly (also by c.59% decade-1) in western Cyprus, while Sardinian Warbler abundance had continued to increase. In contrast, Cyprus Warbler abundance showed no significant change in central and eastern Cyprus, where Sardinian Warblers were sparse or absent during the breeding season. These findings are consistent with at least two contrasting scenarios: that changes have occurred in land-cover or climatic conditions in Cyprus, to the detriment of Cyprus Warbler and to the benefit of Sardinian Warbler; or that in western Cyprus at least, the two species may compete for similar resources, despite a lack of evidence of this in an earlier, more detailed study. In either case, we suggest the need for a thorough, nationwide breeding survey of the two species.